Ceridian Fuel Index Down 1.7% from December, Down 2.2% from Year Ago; Delay in Trucking Activity or Global Trade Slowdown?

In a video, Ed Leamer, Chief PCI� economist hypothesizes "delay in trucking activity".

Chief PCI� economist, Ed Leamer, explains the disappointing month-over-month and year-over-year numbers for the January PCI in the face of other indicators that suggest that the economy is turning around. In this month�s report, Ed explores several hypotheses for the disconnect and concludes that trucking activity is delayed, expecting to see a surge in the coming months.

Ceridian Index vs. Industrial Production



Ceridian Index vs. GDP



Ceridian Index vs. Retail Sales, Inventory, Industrial Production



Year-Over-Year Diesel Sales 


For more charts and commentary please see Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index�

Global Trade Slowdown

I do not buy the economy is turning around and the falloff in diesel demand represents "trucking delayed" any more than I believe the overall plunge in petroleum is "driving delayed".

Instead I propose something far more serious has started - a global trade slowdown. For details, please see Petroleum 3-Month Rolling Average Turns Sharply Lower; Negative Shipping Rates; Collapse in Global Trade

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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