ECRI Calls Recession Based on "Contagion in Forward Indicators"; Just How Timely is the Call?

A number of people have asked me to comment on the ECRI's recession calls.



Link if video does not play: Economist Says U.S. Recession Is `Inescapable'


Tom Keen: "Single Sentence, why recession now"
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan: "Contagion in Forward-Looking Indicators"

Select Quotes from the Video

• "We are looking at forward looking indicators, over a dozen leading indicators on different aspects of the US economy, and it's wildfire"
• "Anyone who is looking for a job has a right to call this a depression"
• "It's going to get worse"
• "Spain never left recession, I don't care what the GDP numbers say. Italy's on the verge, and the [European] core is not looking so good."
• "Dr. Copper is a short-term leading indicator. This thing has room to run. Global industrial growth is not turning up anytime soon"
• "Government bond yields can go even lower. Look at Japan"
• "Future inflation gauge for Europe is heading down"

Superb Interview

I have to give Achuthan credit. I think that was a superb interview. However, I still do not appreciate the half-truths and hype in today's ECRI report U.S. Economy Tipping into Recession

Last year, amid the double-dip hysteria, we definitively ruled out an imminent recession based on leading indexes that began to turn up before QE2 was announced. Today, the key is that cyclical weakness is spreading widely from economic indicator to indicator in a telltale recessionary fashion.

Why should ECRI�s recession call be heeded? Perhaps because, as The Economist has noted, we�ve correctly called three recessions without any false alarms in-between. In contrast, most of those who�ve accurately predicted a recession or two have also been guilty of crying wolf � in 2010, 2005, 2003, 1998, 1995, or 1987.

A Look at ECRI's Recession Predicting Track Record

The ECRI does not call recessions in advance. Perhaps they caught this one, but we will have to wait and see. I suspect the NBER will date this recession back to June or July and if so the ECRI will be about a quarter late.

More importantly the ECRI totally blew the the recession that began in 2007, as well as the strength of it.

As long as the ECRI persists in its false claims, I will persist that people take a look at ECRI's recession predicting track record.

Flashback November 2007 ECRI Vol. XII, No. 11: Weakness In Leading Indicators Not Yet Recessionary

Please consider the following image snip. Highlighting is mine.



ECRI: "The difference this time is that, even though the shocks have arrived, good leading indicators like the USLLI are not showing recessionary weakness ... This is a key reason why the economy is not yet in a recession. .... weakness is not pronounced, pervasive and persistent enough to be recessionary. .... leading indexes are still holding up sufficiently for a recession to be averted."

Window of Opportunity

Friday, January 25, 2008
ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy

The U.S. economy is now in a clear window of vulnerability, given the plunge in ECRI�s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) since last spring. Yet there is a brief window of opportunity within that window of vulnerability to avert a recession. That is why ECRI has not yet forecast a recession. ....

This is why, having correctly predicted the last two recessions in real time without crying wolf in between, we are not forecasting one yet.

ECRI Denial

The ECRI laid it on pretty thick, openly mocking the "best advertised [recession] in history" while claiming "This is why, having correctly predicted the last two recessions in real time without crying wolf in between, we are not forecasting one yet."

The irony is the recession was about 2 months old at the time.

Recession of Choice

Friday, March 28, 2008
ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

The U.S. economy is now on a recession track. Yet this is a recession that could have been averted. In January, given the plunge in the Weekly Leading Index, we declared that the economy had entered a clear window of vulnerability. Yet we emphasized the brief window of opportunity within that window of vulnerability for timely policy stimulus to head off a recession.

It is a somewhat different story with regard to GDP, because the cyclically volatile manufacturing sector still accounts for 36% of GDP. A mild downturn in that sector should limit the decline in GDP in this recession.

Marketing Spin

In contrast note the spin from The Great Recession and Recovery.



Accompanying that slide the ECRI said "And we issued a clear Recession Warning noting that: �The magnitude of oil and interest rate shocks are near recessionary readings.� A month later, as we now know, the recession began.

Compare that slide, with the above image snip above.

The ECRI was clearly bragging not only about besting the yield curve, but also said "The Difference this time is that, even though the shocks have arrived, good leading indexes like USLLI are not showing recessionary weakness. ... as Chart 1 shows, the level of the USLLI is already a little lower now than it was three months earlier. However, this weakness is not pronounced, pervasive and persistent enough to be recessionary"

It's Different This Time!

After the fact, the ECRI took one statement out of context, a statement they went to great lengths to refute, then has the blatant gall to claim they issued a "recession warning".

Recessions Predicted in Arrears

Once again, I think Lakshman Achuthan did an excellent job in the interview. He stated the recession case well.

However, the ECRI has a history of waiting until a recession is baked in the cake, then proclaiming it before the NBER and calling it a success.

The revisionist history in regards to "no misses" is plain to see. The ECRI totally blew the call in 2007 and early 2008. That is not the galling part. Calls are easy to miss. The galling part is the ECRI's revisionist history related to the blown call.

The ECRI's integrity will remain in question as long as it continues to perpetuate the myth of a perfect record. The simple fact of the matter is no one has a perfect track record at calling recessions, interest rates, the stock market or anything else.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Real Disposable Personal Income Drops Second Consecutive Month; Drop is Highly Deflationary

Inquiring minds are digging into the just released Personal Income and Outlays Report for August 2011.

Personal Income

Personal income decreased $7.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent. In July, personal income increased $17.1 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $14.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $76.6 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income decreased 0.3 percent in August, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in July. Real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent.

Wages and Salaries

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $12.2 billion in August, in contrast to an increase of $23.8 billion in July. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $1.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $6.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $2.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.8 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $10.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $17.5 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.8 billion.

Real DPI, real PCE and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in August, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in July.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased less than 0.1 percent in August, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in July. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.5 percent. Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August,compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in July. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

Some charts will help put these numbers onto perspective.

Real Disposable Personal Income Since 1969



Real Disposable Personal Income Since 1989



Real Disposable Personal Income % Change from Year Ago



The second chart is the same as the first except the time period is smaller to better show the decline in the last recession. Together the charts show an unprecedented decline in real personal income.

The third chart shows percentage change from a year ago. Note how rare it is for this number to cross the zero-line. It is headed there again, following an unprecedented drop in 2008-2009.

Unlike the 1970's where consumer prices were soaring this decline comes at a time when the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is tame.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index



The above chart courtesy Personal Consumption Expenditures: Price Index for August by of Doug Short.

It's Credit that Matters

Inflationists will immediately howl over excluding food and energy from the price index (and they will be right). However, inflationists conveniently ignore the collapse in home prices, instead focusing on the price of a Big Mac.

When energy prices send price index lower (which will happen shortly), the inflationists will conveniently ignore that data as well, preferring to scream inflation when commodities are rising while hiding under a rock when commodity prices fall.

Moreover, and more importantly, focus on prices is silly in the first place because in a credit-based economy it is expansion and contraction of credit that matters, not modest increases or decreases in prices (totally ignoring the plunge in home prices to boot).

Drop in Personal Income Highly Deflationary

With real wages falling and jobs exceptionally hard to get (and keep), this drop in personal income will be accompanied with more unwillingness of banks to lend, and therefore must be considered highly deflationary.

For further discussion as to a realistic approach to what inflation and deflation are all about, please see

• Shilling Sees Evidence of Deflation in 5 of 7 Key Areas; Bernanke Begs Congress for Fiscal Stimulus, Admits Fed is Out of Bullets
  


• Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over


• Bizarro World Inflation; About that 2011 Hyperinflation Call ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Shilling Sees Evidence of Deflation in 5 of 7 Key Areas; Bernanke Begs Congress for Fiscal Stimulus, Admits Fed is Out of Bullets

Shilling Sees Evidence of Deflation in Financial Assets, Tangible Assets, Median Income, Commodities, Currencies



Shilling says "Forces of deleveraging and deflation are greater than the Fed can handle."

I certainly agree and have been saying the same thing (correctly I might add) for several years. All the Fed has ever managed to do is slow the deflationary outcome and that is in spite of $trillions in both monetary stimulus from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from Congress.

Once again, if you mistakenly think inflation and deflation are about consumer prices instead of vastly more important credit, you will come to a different conclusion.

For further discussion as to what deflation is all about, please see

• Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over


• Bizarro World Inflation; About that 2011 Hyperinflation Call ...

Fed Out of Bullets

In spite of what the Fed says and wants everyone to believe the Fed is Out of Bullets

Let's Twist Again (and Not Much More) as I expected

There were a lot of expectations regarding numerous options the Fed might take today. I did not expect the Fed would risk trying them.

See Six Things the Fed May Announce Tomorrow (But Likely Won't); Would Any of Them Matter? Gaming the Reaction for details.

The Fed said "Let's Twist Again" and not much more other than throwing a bone at mortgages. Neither will work and the Fed is out of bullets.

Bernanke Begs Congress for Fiscal Stimulus

In a question session following Bernanke's speech Lessons from Emerging Market Economies on the Sources of Sustained Growth (in which Bernanke proves he does not really understand what is really happening in China), Bernanke begged Congress for help and admitted the Fed is out of bullets.

Yahoo Finance reports Bernanke: Long-term unemployment a national crisis

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that long-term unemployment is a "national crisis" and suggested that Congress should take further action to combat it. He also said lawmakers should provide more help to the battered housing industry.

Bernanke said the government needs to provide support to help the long-term unemployed retrain for jobs and find work. And he suggested that Congress should take more responsibility.

In the question-and-answer period, Bernanke cautioned U.S. lawmakers against cutting deficits too quickly to reduce budget deficits. He has said that could put the fragile economy at risk.

In practical terms, Bernanke was begging Congress for help, and in the Q&A session, Bernanke went even farther.

Please consider Everyone Missed It, But Ben Bernanke Peed On The Fed Again Last Night by Joe Weisenthal.

We've talked about this before, the fact that Ben Bernanke is growing increasingly vocal about his skepticism that monetary policy can do much to save this economy.

This is a HUGE change from someone who once said that the Great Depression was entirely the Fed's fault, and that the Fed would never let that happen again!

In his daily note, Art Cashin caught a key bit from a Ben Bernanke Q&A last night after he gave a speech, further emphasizing that Bernanke has radically changed his views.

"Monetary policy can do a lot, but monetary policy is not a panacea," Bernanke said.

That is a close an admission that the "Fed is out of Bullets" that you are ever going to see.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Germany Retail Sales Decline 2.9%, Most Since May 2007; Retail Sales in the Eurozone Fell Fifth Consecutive Month

Those looking for evidence that Europe is already in recession can find it in this headline: German Retail Sales Decline More Than Forecast

German retail sales declined the most in more than four years in August as concerns about the economic impact of Europe�s sovereign debt crisis sapped consumers� willingness to spend.

Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, slumped 2.9 from July, when they rose 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That�s the biggest drop since May 2007. Economists forecast a 0.5 percent drop, according to the median of 18 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales rose 2.2 percent in the year.

The debt crisis is threatening to tip Europe back into recession, damping confidence even as falling German unemployment boosts household purchasing power in Europe�s largest economy. While a possible Greek default has clouded the outlook, the Bundesbank still predicts a �robust� third quarter and growth of about 3 percent this year.

The European Commission on Sept. 15 cut its euro-region growth forecasts for the second half and warned the economy, Germany�s biggest export market, may come �close to standstill at year-end.� The International Monetary Fund in Washington on Sept. 20 also lowered its growth projections for the euro region and Germany for this year and next.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG on Sept. 20 lowered its full-year profit forecast and said it would deepen capacity cuts this winter after last month�s results were weaker than expected and forward bookings slumped.

Still, Germany�s jobless rate fell to 6.9 percent this month, the lowest since the country�s reunification two decades ago, as companies stepped up hiring to meet export orders.

I will take the "under" on 3% German GDP in the second half. Moreover, given the slowdown in Europe, the US, Australia, and now China, the ability of the vaunted German export machine to keep humming along is simply not believable.

Retail Sales in the Eurozone Fell Fifth Consecutive Month

Finfacts reports Rate of decline in Eurozone retail sales slows in September

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell for the fifth month in a row in September, according to Markit�s latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) surveys. That said, the rate of decline slowed to a marginal pace as sales rose in both France and Germany. The survey data again signalled stubbornly high inflationary pressures in the sector, with purchase price inflation at retailers the strongest in over three years.

The Eurozone Retail PMI is a single-figure indicator of changes in the value of sales at retailers. The PMI is adjusted for seasonal factors, and any figure greater than 50.0 signals growth compared with one month earlier. The PMI remained below 50.0 in September, signalling a fifth successive monthly drop in sales revenues. The current sequence of decline is the joint-longest in the past two years. But the index rose during the month, to 49.6 from 48.0, indicating only a marginal decline in sales revenues. The latest PMI figure suggested that the pace of decline in retail sales as measured by the EU�s statistical office Eurostat (on a three-month-on-three-month basis) may ease in the coming months.

Markit says Eurozone retail PMI figures are based on responses from the three largest euro area economies. September figures suggested that Italy remained the weak link, registering a seventh successive monthly drop in retail sales. The rate of contraction was the slowest since March, but still strong overall.

German retail sales continued to rise in September, extending the current sequence of growth to 12 months. This is the longest period of expansion since monthly sales data were first collected in January 2004. The rate of growth slowed to a weak pace, however.

French retail sales rose for the first time since May. The rate of growth was modest, however, and slightly weaker than the average for 2011 so far.

The articles seem at odds with each other since they were both released in the last two days. However, the Bloomberg article was for August, Finfacts was for September.

The important points are the European retail sales PMI is negative and Germany is weakening.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Seton Hall to lower tuition rate by $21K matching Rutgers; Cost of College Education will Crash; Moronic Educators Object to Lower Costs

I have been waiting for and expecting news headlines just like this one: Seton Hall will lower tuition rate by $21K to match Rutgers for some incoming freshmen

Getting good grades and high SAT scores could save some Seton Hall University freshmen more than $21,000 a year in tuition costs under an unusual new program that could pit the Catholic school against Rutgers University for some of the state�s top students.

Starting next fall, Seton Hall will match Rutgers� tuition � which is currently $10,104 a year for most in-state undergraduates � if freshmen score at least 1,200 on the combined reading and math sections of their SAT tests and graduate in the top 10 percent of their high school class.

Other students on the South Orange campus will continue to pay Seton Hall�s regular annual tuition rate, which is currently $31,440 before room, board and other fees are added.

Expect Plans to Spread

Drew University in Madison rejected the plan as a publicity stunt. However, I expect such plans to spread. I also expect more competition from online classes.

If Congress really wants to do something about the high cost of education, it would:

1. Cancel student loan programs
2. End support for the University of Phoenix and all for-profit universities
3. Accredit more online universities
4. End collective bargaining of public unions

Cost of College Education will Crash Within a Decade

The cost of college education would sink like a rock with those four structural improvements.

Interestingly, even with piss poor government policies, places like Seton Hal, prices have collapsed for some students. Right now the opening toss applies to 10% of the students. Next year it may be 25% of students and offered at more universities.

For those who have kids in grade school, I would not advise programs that lock in today's rates if paid in advance.

The cost of college education will crash within a decade, simply because it has to. Moreover, the free market would lower costs sooner and far more dramatically, if only given the chance. Wages are not supportive of current education costs.

Addendum:

I wrote the above quoting the New Jersey Start Ledger article written yesterday. I received two emails just now pointing to additional articles in the Wall Street Journal and New York Daily News.

Please consider the Journal Article Seton Hall Cuts Cost For High Achievers

Seton Hall University will radically restructure its tuition for next year, slashing costs by more than 60% for all incoming students who have achieved a set of academic standards in high school, officials announced on Wednesday.

Some national education experts expressed concerns that the plan could accelerate a national trend: a shift in the focus of financial aid toward merit-based scholarships rather than awards based on need.

"There's only so much money, and at the end of the day every college needs to make decisions about who they'll subsidize," said Patrick Callan, the president of the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

The proposal raised concerns among some education experts, who said that schools are moving further away from the original intent behind subsidizing higher education: to help people attend college who couldn't afford it otherwise.

"When you just flat out across the board knock the price down for high-achieving students, you're going to be subsidizing a lot of students who don't really need the money," said Mr. Callan.

This form of subsidization "tends to help the institution attract the freshman class that it wants to raise the academic profile, raise the U.S. News rating," he said. "It doesn't have much to do with providing opportunity to people who wouldn't have it."

"It becomes, from a budget point of view, a race to the bottom," said Jerome Sullivan, the executive director of the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers. "Someone else will do the same thing only they'll do it $50 better. And then someone else will do it $100 better."

The ultimate result, he said, is that "the budget gets ravished because revenue begins to disappear and in the end it's low-income families as well as the institution that lose out."

Failure of Subsidies

One of the reasons college education is so high is because union activists and socialists want to send everyone to college whether they are qualified or not. When that drove up costs, government "aid" programs were invented, not for the benefit of students, but rather for the benefit of educators. Students became debt slaves in the process.

The education mess has gotten bigger and more costly ever since programs were put in place to subsidize students, many of whom did not belong in college in the first place, but rather a trade school or apprentice program.

Moronic Thinking of Jerome Sullivan

Note the moronic thinking of Jerome Sullivan. He is actually complaining about costs of education dropping, complaining price wars will hurt low-income families.

The fact of the matter is the more prices drop, the more people can afford to go to college.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Peter Oborne 'Idiot' Comments Prompts EU Spokesman To Storm Off Newsnight

link if above video does not play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNq9MOc5CBY

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

China Loan Shark Market Crashes; Scores of Chinese Business Owners Unable to Pay Black Market Loans Commit Suicide or Disappear

Here is an interesting email from reader "Kevin" regarding the crashing loan-shark market in China.

Hello Mish

I am a long time reader and want to bring to your attention on a new development in China: private business owners are disappearing or jumping off buildings because they can no longer pay off black market shark loans.

According to national new paper Economics Information (part of state media Xinhua), on 9/22, Hu Fulin, owner of the biggest eyeglass manufacture of the city of Wenzhou disappeared, leaving behind 2 billion RMB debt.

On 9/25, 3 more business owners in Wenzhou disappeared (owners of copper, steel and shoe manufacture).

On 9/27, owner of "Zhengdeli", a shoe manufacture jumped off of a 22 story building and killed himself.

Since April this year 29 private business owners have disappeared, all of them had over 100 million RMB businesses. 11 of the 29 owned shoe manufacturing businesses.

An analyst from China Investment (China's Sovereign investment fund) pointed out that it's because they are squeezed by a rapid increase of component and labor costs. A rising RMB is also a reason why many export oriented companies are hit. In August, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou Small-Medium Business Development Association said the profit margin of Small-Medium businesses in Wenzhou has dropped to under 5% and absent of policy changes, 40% of businesses in Wenzhou will go out of business by next Spring Festival (late Jan 2012)

The complete article is here (in Chinese): http://www.jjckb.cn/2011-09/29/content_334954.htm.

Another article http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20110929/005910558780.shtml (titled: China's Shark Loans Crashing; "Grey Finance" Brewing the Chinese Crisis) states that most of those owners have borrowed "private" loans (typically 70% of all loans), with MONTHLY interest rate ranging from 3% to 10%.

About 89% of families/individuals and 59% of companies in Wenzhou participated in such "private loan" schemes. In Erdos (the ghost city you blogged many times), such "private loans" are more than 200 billion RMB with annual interest rate over 60%. Now they are crashing, causing rampant unfinished real estate projects in Erdos.

Note that Wenzhou is one of riches cities in China (No. 3 in disposable income per capita), and is considered the "Birthplace of China's Private Economy". Wenzhou people are among the first that got in trades, manufacturing, export, and in recent years real estate investment/speculation. The Wenzhou economy is considered the "weathercock" of Chinese economy.

Loan Shark Credit Crisis Brewing

Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Gray Chinese-style financial credit crisis brewing area

"Economic Information Daily" correspondent from the multi-confirmed the day before and then there were two causes of Wenzhou City, inability to repay loan sharks and jumping events. According to informed sources, the two business owners are the local shoe factory owner, debt of millions.

Since April this year, Wenzhou, missing more than 80 business owners, the company closed, the event staff pay talks, since September alone, there are up to 25 cases. A local lender told reporters, "At present, only the flight of capital Longwan area estimated to have 100 million or more, many SMEs liabilities, the banks accounted for 30%, accounting for 70% civil usury."

Crazy expansion of private lending market chaos

Some sharks can reach up to 180% per annum. ... "many companies debt snowball, private lending market has not been given attention now has about 25% local to 30% of companies in trouble, some in the suspension or semi-shutdown state, but by the end of this class companies are more likely accounted for 40% to 50%. "

Financial Earthquake Triggered by Loan Shark Business

Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider loan-sharking business owners who jumped to escape

September 22, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Jiang Xintai largest optical company chairman Hu Fulin liabilities 2 billion fled, triggering a major earthquake Wenzhou business. Wenzhou Zhou German SME Development Association president, said Hu Fulin liabilities involving nearly ten thousand people, dozens of companies, including upstream and downstream Nobuyasu and creditors, the incident is still fermenting, the impact will be further expanded.

Hu Fulin fled after the September 25 Wenzhou enterprises have three big boss fled; afternoon of September 27, Wenzhou shoe boss is profit because of debt problems from Wenzhou Shun Building, 22 Floor, Jin jumped to death.

The translations are choppy, but the ideas very easy to spot.

$SSEC - Shanghai Exchange -Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image

China is down another 1% (not reflected in the above chart), to 2368 as of 2:00 AM Thursday. It closed at 2365.



click on chart for sharper image

The Shanghai stock market depicts a credit bubble that collapsed in 2008, partially rebounded, and is sinking once again.

China did not decouple from the global economy, nor is there any reason to believe it will, or should. China's debt bubble, housing bubble, and copper Ponzi financing schemes are collapsing.

Copper Ponzi Scheme: See Ponzi Financing Involving Copper Trade Gone Wild In China for details of a copper financing scheme now gone bust.

Shark Loans: See Ponzi "Shark Loans" Fuel China's Housing Bubble; Home Sales Plunge 44% in Xiamen; Bubble Busts in Tianjin for details on how loan shark operations fueled China's real estate bubble.

Ghost Cities: I have done many stories on China's ghost cities, most recently World's Biggest Property Bubble: China's Ghost Cities Revisited; 64 Million Vacant Properties

Property Loans Halted: Property Loans Halted in China's 2nd and 3rd-Tier Cities; Is China's Spectacular Real Estate Bubble About to Pop?

All of these schemes are starting to unravel in a major way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Enron-i-sation of Europe; Is the Euro "Beyond Rescue"?

Steen Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo bank in Denmark discusses the Enron-i-sation of Europe in an Email "Macro Brief"

The Enron-i-sation of Europe: Finding solutions through SPV�s speak for themselves. Apart from the inability to being implemented (if German constitutional court is heard) it�s also a slippery road towards permanent aid. Hiding debt in more and more obscure vehicles is similar to Enron having 1000s of SPV hiding the �real issue�. Debt is debt. It needs to be paid back or someone needs to take a loss!

New financial tax: This is major game changer � this is in my opinion the beginning of the end for Europe � the �new new� in this scenario is that G-20/EU seems to have found an academic documentation that the tax may not need be applied �universally� � they mention domestic taxes in India(not freely trading market) and UK.

The suggested (not confirmed) level of taxes are 0.1 pc on shares and bonds (1 mio. EUR equals �tax� of 1.000 EUR) and 0.01 on derivatives or 1.4 pips on each side of EURUSD! This is MASSIVE tax��. And as such shows that my Maximum Intervention concept is now operating a top speed.

Banks are now meeting around Europe to move their operation outside the EU.

We are no longer doing two steps forward, three steps back, but one step forward and ten back. Furthermore the so called �Plan� for saving Europe is not reality.

All my sources confirm, again and again, this is a desperate attempt to find the right path through this mess. The people in the know, realize there are no longer any good solutions only pain. The pain from here is either 2-5 years of recession or 10-15 years. Enron-i-sation & tax makes this week the new low in solidarity, rationality and solution seeking.

Cash is king � and cash in UK, Switzerland, Singapore, and US even more King-ish. I remain EXTREMELY bearish on this.

Notes on SPVs

Investopedia describes the Special Purpose Vehicle/Entity - SPV/SPE

What Does Special Purpose Vehicle/Entity - SPV/SPE Mean?

1. Also referred to as a "bankruptcy-remote entity" whose operations are limited to the acquisition and financing of specific assets. The SPV is usually a subsidiary company with an asset/liability structure and legal status that makes its obligations secure even if the parent company goes bankrupt.

2. A subsidiary corporation designed to serve as a counterparty for swaps and other credit sensitive derivative instruments. Also called a "derivatives product company."

Thanks to Enron, SPVs/SPEs are household words.

Euro is "Practically Dead, Beyond Rescue"

Bloomberg reports Euro Is Beyond Rescue in Debt Crisis, Szalay-Berzeviczy Says

The euro is �practically dead� and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default, according to Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, global head of securities services at Italy�s biggest lender UniCredit SpA. (UCG)

�The euro is beyond rescue,� Szalay-Berzeviczy said in an opinion piece for index.hu., a Hungarian news portal, which he signed as former chairman of the Budapest Stock Exchange. �The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece�s spirits.�

�It�s one scenario among many, one which may lead to the breakup of the euro area via a banking crisis,� he said in the interview. �This can still be averted. It primarily depends on the Germans, and secondly on European citizens, especially on how much the Greek population can tolerate.�

Szalay-Berzeviczy�s �are his own personal view and do not reflect the position of the company,� Claudia Bresgen, a spokeswoman at UniCredit in Munich, Germany, said by e-mail.

"Beyond Rescue" and "This can still be averted" are logical opposites.

Nonetheless, it's interesting to see such blunt comments from high places at major lenders, even if those comments "do not reflect the position of the company".

For more on the twisted mess in Europe, please consider these recent posts

• Growing Isolation in Germany as Merkel's Allies Abandon Her; Polls Show 75% of Germans Oppose More Bailouts; Clock Ran Out of Time


• Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies


• Europe Plans to Tax Stock and Bond Transactions .1%, Derivatives .01% Despite US Objections; Expect More Crashes Should it Pass


• European Stocks Climb Most in 16 Months; Pimco's El-Erian Says "Europe Finally Gets It"; El-Erian is Wrong in Multiple Ways


• Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers

I struggle to see how the Eurozone can survive intact. No currency union without a fiscal union has ever survived and the German court ruled out a fiscal union without a new constitution and popular referendum. Good luck with that given 75% of Germans oppose more bailouts. See the above articles for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Growing Isolation in Germany as Merkel's Allies Abandon Her; Polls Show 75% of Germans Oppose More Bailouts; Clock Ran Out of Time

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely survive a key vote on Thursday to expand the EFSF bailout fund, but passage now depends on support from the opposition.

Even more telling is the increasing isolation sentiment in Germany. Polls show shows three-quarters of Germans are against the expanded European rescue fund that's subject to Thursday's vote. So, who is it that politicians represent?

The Wall Street Journal reports Germans Reconsider Ties to Europe

When German lawmakers vote Thursday on whether to put more money into Europe's bailout fund�a step many investors see as essential to prevent a market panic�several conservative deputies, including Wolfgang Bosbach, a prominent champion of European integration, are expected to vote "no." Mr. Bosbach, a high-ranking conservative in Ms. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, has recently become an outspoken critic of the bailout strategy.

"The first medicine didn't work, and now we are simply doubling the dose," said the lanky Mr. Bosbach of the Greek debt crisis. "My fear is that when the big bang happens, it won't just be us who will have to pay but generations hereafter."

The lawmaker rebellion underscores a broader shift among Germans about their nation's role in Europe since the crisis erupted nearly two years ago. While the Thursday vote is expected to pass, and a vast majority of Germans continue to feel a strong, historical commitment to Europe, with a common currency as its anchor, many have grown doubtful of whether it's worth the ever-growing cost of saving the euro.

A poll for national German broadcaster ZDF earlier this month shows three-quarters of Germans are against the expanded European rescue fund that's subject to Thursday's vote.

The measures before German parliament today would nearly double the main euro-zone's bailout fund's lending capacity to �440 billion ($595 billion) and allow the fund to buy sovereign bonds in the open market.

Germany's contribution to the new, expanded rescue loan package is �211 billion, still less than half the �500 billion it pledged to bail out its banks in 2008. But many see the European Central Bank's moves to buy billions of euros in low-grade government bonds of southern European countries as another sign that European institutions are slipping away from them.

Even more unpalatable is the prospect of making the euro zone collectively liable for its members' debts, as a growing chorus of European officials have recently urged. Many argue so-called euro bonds, which Ms. Merkel has steadfastly opposed, are the bulwark to relieve financial pressure on debt-ridden members and underpin the euro zone's full fiscal union.

But to Germans, it would mean relinquishing their hard-won low borrowing rates to pay for the largess of more free-wheeling members.

"Ultimately the euro-bond issue will come to a head, and Ms. Merkel will have an impossible dilemma," says one senior German coalition lawmaker. "If she goes back to the German people with [euro bonds], she is out. If she doesn't, she will be a very lonely person in Europe."

Merkel's Clock Ran Out of Time

The vote in Germany is a foregone conclusion, but it is the end of the line for Merkel, whether or not she needs opposition votes for passage.

She is taking a stance 75% of the nation does not agree with, and that stance is guaranteed not to work. The German court nixed Eurobonds, permanent bailout funds, and leveraged use of the EFSF.

Greece is going to need more and there is no more to give. Time will not improve this situation but it's a moot point. The clock ran out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Government and the Power to Issue Fiat Currency Out of Thin Air

Here is an excellent video on fiat currencies by my friend Dominic Frisby at Frisby's Bulls and Bears.



Bear in mind we are in credit based economy, and credit markets can override the Fed's ability to create inflation, assuming of course a definition of inflation that encompasses credit.

Please see Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over for a discussion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Harrisburg Heads for Receivership in New Pennsylvania Bill; Crisis Will Linger Because State Legislature is Clueless

The state of Pennsylvania continues to take half-ass measures in resolving the budget crisis in Harrisburg. New legislation fails to address two badly needed action items.

Please consider Harrisburg Might Get a Receiver Thanks to Pennsylvania Bill

Harrisburg may become Pennsylvania�s first municipality to fall under receivership.

The City Council in July and August rejected fiscal rescue blueprints from consultants hired by the state and Mayor Linda Thompson. Today, The state House of Representatives voted 185-9 for a bill that would let Republican Governor Tom Corbett name a receiver. The Senate still must consider the plan.

The capital city of 49,500 faces a debt burden five times its general-fund budget because of an overhaul and expansion of a trash-to-energy incinerator, which doesn�t generate enough revenue to cover the obligations. It avoided defaulting on general-obligation bonds in September and last year by getting advances on state aid.

The vote �sends a strong message� to elected officials in Harrisburg and elsewhere not to dawdle with recovery plans, Representative Glenn Grell said on the House floor.

Grell, of Hampden Township in Cumberland County, and Senator Jeffrey E. Piccola of Susquehanna Township in Dauphin County, both Republicans, are pushing the legislation. The bill would allow Corbett to declare a fiscal emergency in Harrisburg and name a receiver who would develop a recovery plan.

The manager, technically appointed by the Commonwealth Court and paid by the state, would have the power to implement the steps, such as selling assets, hiring advisers and suspending the authority of elected officials who interfere. Unlike in Michigan, the receiver wouldn�t be able to change union contracts.

There is no point in reading further. The facts as presented show why the crisis will linger on and on, at taxpayer expense.

1. Harrisburg is bankrupt. It's time to recognize that simple fact, announce bankruptcy, and force the bondholders to take a loss.


2. Without power to force changes in union contracts and pensions, any new receiver will have not one but two hands tied behind his back in putting Harrisburg back on a path towards fiscal sanity.

Strong Message Legislature is Clueless

Representative Glenn Grell said "the vote sends a strong message to elected officials in Harrisburg".

Actually it sends a strong message the Pennsylvania legislature is clueless about what needs to be done.

Harrisburg has numerous problems, and untenable union wages and benefits are a huge part of that problem. Once again, it's time to stop Fantasyland dreams and Take The Loss.

Bondholders and unions alike have losses to take. Until they do, the crisis in Harrisburg will linger on.

For needed loss-taking in Europe, please see Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies

French and German banks know a good deal when they have one. They have one in the 21% haircuts they "voluntarily" accepted. The problem is even 50% haircuts are likely insufficient. The bondholders are upset at this reality. Tough.

Yahoo! Finance reports Merkel says Greek bailout terms may be changed

German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that the second Greek bailout package might have to be renegotiated amid increasing market speculation Wednesday that European leaders want to force private holders of Greek bonds to take bigger losses.

Merkel didn't rule out altering the terms to the euro109 billion ($148 billion) package, saying the decision must be based on how Greece's debt inspectors, the so-called troika, judge Athens' recent austerity efforts.

"So we must now wait for what the troika finds out and what it tells us: do we have to renegotiate or do we not have to renegotiate?" she said in an interview with Greece's ERT television Tuesday night.

Merkel added that she "cannot anticipate the result of the troika."

Greece "will not get back on its feet without a serious reduction in debt," said Ottmar Issing, a former chief economist of the European Central Bank, who has served as an adviser to Merkel in the past.

Athens needs to see its debt cut "at least 50 percent, probably more," Issing was quoted by Germany's Stern magazine.

Germany's banking association insisted there was no need to renegotiate the terms of the second bailout package. Banks in Germany and France are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds.

A default by Greece or another country would send shock waves through the global economy, particularly in Europe, authorities fear. Banks would suffer such large losses on government bonds they hold that they would cut off credit to the wider economy and cause a new, sharper recession.

Needs vs. Fantasies

The banking industry says there is no "need" to change the terms. Of course there is a need to change the terms. Banks are not going to be paid back what they are owed. Let's not confuse "needs" with pie-in-the-sky fantasies.

Split Opens over Greek Bail-Out Terms

The Financial Times reports Split opens over Greek bail-out terms

A split has opened in the eurozone over the terms of Greece's second �109bn bail-out with as many as seven of the bloc's 17 members arguing for private creditors to swallow a bigger writedown on their Greek bond holdings, according to senior European officials.

The divisions have emerged amid mounting concerns that Athens' funding needs are much bigger than estimated just two months ago. They threaten to unpick a painfully negotiated deal reached with private sector bond holders in July.

While hardliners in Germany and the Netherlands are leading the calls for more losses to be imposed on the private sector, France and the European Central Bank are fiercely resisting any such move. They fear re-opening the bond deal could spark renewed selling of shares in European banks, which have significant holdings of Greek and other peripheral eurozone debt.

Senior European said there was significant division over the move to re-open the bondholders' deal, which could trigger a bigger and earlier restructuring of Greek debt. Even within Germany, officials are split over whether to press for a bigger "haircut" for private sector creditors.

Under the terms of the July bail-out, bondholders agreed to trade about �135bn in bonds that come due through 2020 for new, European Union-backed bonds that would not be repaid for decades. This deal implied a haircut of 21 per cent for bondholders, but many German officials say they were forced to agree a deal that was too beneficial for the banks.

Take the Loss

One look at the DAX, or European bank stocks suggests major shock waves have already been felt. More are coming. However, the shock waves would have been far less had banks, the ECB, and the EU accepted realistic losses two years ago and simply let Greece default.

Losses will now be four to 10 times as large, depending on how much more money everyone is willing to throw at the problem. Thus, upping the ante to shelter bondholders from losses was exactly the wrong thing to do then, and it is still the wrong thing to do today.

Barry Ritholtz had an excellent article on this theme just today: Take The Loss.

The fear should have been in hiding losses not taking them. Unfortunately, I expect some wishy-washy compromise will up the losses one reportedly "final time" to 30-35% not the needed 60% or so. It won't work. Hiding losses by not reporting them only makes matters worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Brazil Seeks to Tax Derivatives; No BRIC Decoupling

In response to Europe Plans to Tax Stock and Bond Transactions .1%, Derivatives .01% Despite US Objections; Expect More Crashes Should it Pass I received a response from a reader in Brazil about BRIC decoupling (more specifically, the lack thereof).

LTBR writes ...

Hi Mish,

Brazil is also trying to push a tax on derivatives. However, the opposition is faking outrage. They will pass, for sure, because those crook politicians never met a tax they didn't like.

I think that Brazil is freaking out, because they know that China's economy is about to crash. I've noticed that lately Brazil is trying to collect money with taxing about anything, fearing that China's bubble and the commodities party is ending. For instance, Brazil just proposed a 30% tax (IPI) on any car mfr. with less than 80% of its parts made in Brazil. China's auto mfr. PAC has given up on opening a factory in Brazil, after this special tax nonsense was announced. Other companies are trying the judicial system to cancel this tax.

Keep in mind that import cars in Brazil cost already 3 times more than at its country of origin. And the place is full of imports, since it's a land of wannabes who love to live beyond their means.

Another problem with taxing derivatives, which you have mentioned, is that exporters use it to hedge their exports. Since Brazil is a large net exporter, that tax will eat a big chunk of exporter's profits. All to fund welfare for buying votes from the poor or to transfer taxes to their political parties, unions, and corporate cronies.

Here's the link to the article about taxing derivatives in Brazil, if you want to read on Google Translate: Opposition wants to hear before voting Mantega IOF derivatives

Regards,

Long time Brazilian reader with degree from American B-School.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Chris Christie Mulls Presidential Run; Independents Key to Election, and Christie can Rally Independents

Over the past week or so I have seen several stories about the possibility of Chris Christie running for president. Here is one such story from today from CBS News Political Hotsheet: Chris Christie confidante says N.J. gov. mulling WH run

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has repeatedly said he is not running for president. But one of his predecessors who has known Christie for decades says he is now at least thinking about it.

Former governor Tom Kean told the National Review Online that the chatter around Christie's change of heart in recent days is "real."

Republicans are clamoring for a candidate who will be able to energize the base and beat President Obama in a general election. Erstwhile front-runner Mitt Romney is widely seen as one of the strongest Republican candidates in a general election, but the most conservative parts of the party are less than thrilled with a candidate who was once governor of left-leaning Massachusetts.

Christie, as governor of Democratic New Jersey, may run into the same problem with Republican primary voters, who tend to be have the most conservative views of the party.

In New Jersey, however, Christie's approval rating has risen sharply since he signed into a law a dramatic revamp of pension and health benefits for state workers in June.

About 54 percent of voters in his state now approve of his performance as governor, while 36 percent disapprove, according to a poll released Tuesday by Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind. That's a 10 point increase from the 44 percent approval in May, when about 44 percent also disapproved, and the highest approval rating for Christie since taking office after ousting former Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009.

Kean Confirms Christie Boomlet: �It�s Real�

The National Review Online reports Kean Confirms Christie Boomlet: �It�s Real�

Former New Jersey governor Tom Kean, who has known Chris Christie since he was a teenager and remains an informal adviser, tells National Review Online that the governor is �very seriously� considering a presidential bid.

�It�s real,� Kean says. �He�s giving it a lot of thought. I think the odds are a lot better now than they were a couple weeks ago.�

Christie remains undecided, Kean says, but is listening closely to pleas from party leaders. The chance for a �Jersey guy� to rise, Kean says, is not something Christie has sought. But now, with the field up for grabs, he is actively mulling a late entry.

�More and more people are talking to him,� Kean says. �He�s getting appeals from major figures around the country.� Kean, for his part, is also encouraging the first-term Republican to jump in. �He is the best speaker I may have ever heard in politics,� he tells me.

�In an era when most people suspect that politicians read polls and then tell you what they think, people don�t believe he�s that kind of a fellow,� Kean says. �He tells you what he thinks, period. We like that around here.�

�A lot of people are not satisfied with the field,� Kean says. �I know he�s getting advice from all sides.� In coming days, �he�s not going to tease anybody.� If circumstances do change � and Kean makes no predictions � �he�s not going to hide it.�

Unsatisfactory Field

I'm not satisfied with the field. I think it's safe to say independents in general are not satisfied with the field.

I back Ron Paul but do not think Paul can win. Furthermore, I may write in Ron Paul even if he does not win the nomination. That is how much I dislike the rest of the Republican field.

My position was the same in 2008. I could not stomach a McCain/Palin ticket. I wrote in Ron Paul.

However, if Christie is the nominee, I will do whatever I can to help the Governor.

In spite of long-odds Christie has helped turn the state of New Jersey around. Moreover, he has above a 50% rating in spite of the fact that he has stepped on many unions toes. I see no indication that Christie is beholden to banks, and he certainly is not beholden to unions.

Independents Need Someone to Rally Around

It is highly likely independents will swing the next election. They voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 and abandoned Democrats in the mid-term elections.

Can independents rally around Mitt Romney? I can only speak for myself, not independents in general. I can't support Romney. Nor can I support Perry who has made an enormous number of gaffes recently, anyone of which can sink him in the general election were he to win the nomination.

On the other hand, Chris Christie is honest, does not mince words, is not beholden to anyone and has a tremendous fiscal track record in New Jersey. If he can stay away from the political hotbed issues of abortion by taking a modest, middle-of-the-road stance, that too would help him with independents.

Light My Fire

The Republican nominee will capture the far-Right vote. They are not going to vote for Obama, nor will they stay away from the election. Thus, it would be a serious mistake for Republicans to rally around a far-Right platform when it may cost them dearly with independents.

A fiscal conservative like Christie can light a fire with independents in a way the other Republicans can't.

Battle for the Middle

Not much is known about Christie on other than Fiscal issues. He can easily put together a platform that would appeal to everyone but unions, the far-Left, and the far-Right.

The far-Right will vote for Christie 8-days a week. The far-Left and unions will vote for Obama 8-days a week. The middle, not the Left or Right is where the battle will be won or lost.

All we need now is a decision from Christie to throw his hat in the ring with a strong, fiscally conservative message, and middle-of-the-road ideas elsewhere.

If Christie does that, he will not only ignite enthusiasm, he will win the nomination and the general election as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Europe Plans to Tax Stock and Bond Transactions .1%, Derivatives .01% Despite US Objections; Expect More Crashes Should it Pass

Europe plans to raise as much as 50 billion Euros annually with a financial transaction tax. If they are looking to increase volatility, remove liquidity, and increase the odds of a crash, then such a tax may "help".

Please consider Brussels to release financial tax plan despite US objections

The European Commission approved in principle the tax proposal on Tuesday, and the head of the EU executive Jose Manuel Barroso may outline the plan on Wednesday in a "state of the union" address to the European parliament in Strasbourg.

On the commission's drawing-board for more than a year, the idea was given fresh impetus last month when given the nod by Europe's power couple, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"The idea is to force a contribution from the financial sector, which enjoys fiscal privileges thanks to a sales tax exemption, meaning it saves 18 billion euros a year in Europe," an EU source told AFP on condition of anonymity.

If adopted -- not before 2014 -- the tax could ring in between 30 billion and 50 billion euros a year -- possibly half for the European Union budget, the remainder for national governments.

The rate suggested would be minimal with member states free to hike the tax.

The financial transactions tax is slated to target a wide field, with the latest known proposals aiming to slap 0.1 percent on shares and bonds and 0.01 percent on derivatives.

While Merkel and Sarkozy offered no details on the tax in August, their support helped send shares into an immediate tailspin with financial sector players warning the measure would push business away from Europe.

Britain, at the heart of the financial industry, reiterated demands for any such tax to be applied globally. "Otherwise the transaction covered would simply relocate," a Treasury spokesperson said.

But a source close to experts drafting the proposals said the research on the issue was "reassuring", with negative impact deemed "negligeable" when compared with Europe's overall attraction to financial transactions.

The tax, the source added, would include a principle of territorial location to avoid relocation.

"A non-European bank registered in Europe for certain transactions could be considered to be established in Europe. The tax would not be based on where transactions take place but on the parties involved."

Reduced Liquidity Increases Chance of Crashes

Short term traders add liquidity. Would .1% drive them away? Yes, it might. Think of it this way, 10 quick flips is 1%. 100 trades is 10%. In the short-term trading world 100 trades is not a big number.

What about computerized trading? I fail to see how that is any different.

Reduced liquidity increases the chances of crashes. Thus, the financial transaction tax will not help anyone, and that includes long-term hold types.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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European Stocks Climb Most in 16 Months; Pimco's El-Erian Says "Europe Finally Gets It"; El-Erian is Wrong in Multiple Ways

For three days European stocks have soared 7% with the beaten up banking sector up even more. This is the biggest rally since May 10, 2010. That rally did not hold, and while anything is possible, this rally is unlikely to hold either. In the meantime, enjoy the rally.

European Stocks Climb Most in 16 Months

Bloomberg reports European Stocks Climb Most in 16 Months Amid Effort to Contain Debt Crisis

European stocks climbed the most in 16 months amid speculation policy makers will increase efforts to contain the region�s sovereign-debt crisis.

Rio Tinto Group led a rally in raw-material shares, surging 7 percent, as metal prices rose. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale (GLE) SA, France�s biggest banks, soared more than 12 percent. MAN SE (MAN) rose 6.9 percent as European Union regulators cleared Volkswagen AG (VOW)�s takeover of the truckmaker.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 4.4 percent to 229.88 at 4:36 p.m. in London. That�s the biggest gain since May 10, 2010, when it jumped 7.2 percent after the EU unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) loan package aimed at controlling the debt crisis. The gauge has surged 6.8 percent over the past three trading days after falling to a two-year low on Sept. 22.

The Stoxx 600 fell 26 percent from this year�s peak in February through Sept. 22 as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the global recovery is at risk. The decline left the measure trading at 9 times estimated earnings, the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted that European governments will step up their response to their region�s debt crisis after a chiding from counterparts around the world.

�They heard from everybody around the world� in Washington meetings last week, Geithner said on ABC�s �World News With Diane Sawyer� program. Europe�s crisis is �starting to hurt growth everywhere, in countries as far away as China, Brazil and India, Korea. And they heard the same message from us they heard from everybody else, which is it�s time to move.�

Stocks Not Cheap

For starters, stocks are not particularly cheap. Earnings in general will be worse than expected because consumers have increasingly thrown in the towel and much of the global economy is back in recession. Banks are still hiding losses, and European banks are way over-exposed to sovereign debt not remotely marked-to-market.

While the 3-day euphoria spreads, I point out many times in the past six months where there have been 1- to 3-day rallies that all died.

This time the market is giddy over EFSF leverage that the German parliament may not even approve, and the German supreme court says "not without a referendum".

Please see Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers for details.

Europe Finally Gets It

El-Erian Says "Europe Finally Gets It"

�What I learned in Washington is that Europeans finally get it,� El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at the world�s biggest manager of bond funds, said in a radio interview today on �Bloomberg Surveillance� with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. �They recognize they have deep problems and they recognize they need to do something about it. And now they are going back and will try to do something about it. This was a very important wake-up call for Europe.�

Talk is Cheap

El-Erian says that European leaders are now "all saying the right things". What right things? There is bickering over bank capitalization ratios, bickering over how banks will be recapitalized, and bickering over whether or not Greece will default and if so what the haircuts will be.

None of the talk regarding the currently hatched plan addresses haircuts that are coming.

European leaders have their heads in the sand, or perhaps up Treasury Secretary Tim Geithners' ass as it was Geithner who actually hatched the ballyhooed leveraged bailout scheme.

Yes, they have hatched a plan to use leverage, but that plan has enormous risks. Moreover, it is questionable at best the German supreme court will allow that plan to stand.

Even if the plan does stand, throwing trillions of Euros around just to prevent Greece from defaulting hardly seems like a sensible policy. The sensible policy would have been to let Greece default two years ago.

Throwing Trillions of Euros is Not "Getting It"

Europe does not "Get It", nor does El-Erian. In the end, El-Erian is just another monetarist who thinks the answer to problems is sloshing around money, at taxpayer expense, to bail out banks and bondholders who should instead have to take losses for poor lending decisions.

This is Not "Getting It". Rather it is "Going All In" instead of taking writeoffs that are going to happen anyway. Thus, El-Erian is wrong in more ways than one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Cash Crunch in China Picks Up Momentum; Chinese Economy "Teetering On the Edge"

Todd Martin, an Asia equity strategist at Societe General SA, talks about the outlook for China's economy and credit market. Martin also discusses global stocks and commodities. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia."



The interview starts off with a very weak idea "fundamentals have been thrown out the window". However the analysis gets much better as the video progresses. Here are a few key ideas from Todd Martin.

• RMB offshore vs. onshore rate is at a historic low. This shows Hong Kong or China mainlanders are hoarding cash, possibly to repay debts.
• The liquidation phase is concerning. Markets are looking into a deflationary abyss.
• Recent capital inflows into China are misleading. It was not investment but rather mainland money repatriated to repay debt.
• Cash crunch in China picks up momentum. We are going into a new down phase and true credit cycle in China. That can take on a life of its own.

Select Quotes

Rishaad Salamat: "Are you saying at the moment that the Chinese economy is teetering on the edge as a consequence of all this?"

Todd Martin: "It's beginning to look like that. There are signals that there is a cash crunch and it is picking up momentum. The offshore RMB market for one. The repatriation of capital for two. This could cascade into a property correction. Once that gets going, you could probably get a lot of sellers jumping into the market."

Rishaad Salamat: Is commodities the worst asset class to be in, at the moment?

Todd Martin: "Commodities is probability the worst asset class to get hit. If you are in a business seeing input prices fall and you have some pricing power downstream, then you could come out OK. Steel prices are still falling faster than iron ore, so that is still not one to be in yet. It's pretty bloody. We are withing 15% of the bottom but the credit cycle concerns me."

Fundamentals

I disagree with Martin about the fundamentals. I think fundamentals on China are horrible. I have been bearish on commodities because China is overheating at a time global demand from Europe and the US will collapse.

For further discussion, please see Michael Pettis: Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions written August 22.

Hopping into commodities or commodity-related currencies with a strengthening US dollar, falling global demand, a potential breakup of the Eurozone, a default by Greece, etc, was a poor investment idea.

Please see the link for a very nice discussion of 12 detailed ideas for the global economy.

This is what I said on August 22, in response to the ideas of Pettis.

Six Key Ideas

1. China Will Slow Much More than China Bulls and Commodity Bulls Think
2. Non-food Commodities Take Big Hit
   
3. Eurozone Experiment Ends in Breakup
4. US Protectionism Takes Hold
5. Deficit Countries Control Demand, Thus Have the Best Cards
6. Disaster Hits BRICs
   

Contrarian Thinking

Except perhaps for points three and four (and perhaps for all six points) investors and analysts have taken the opposite view. Most are looking to buy the dip, invest in commodities, invest in commodity producing currencies, and invest in the BRICs.

We did not have commodity producer decoupling in 2008 and there is no reason to expect it as debt-deflation plays out and China abandons its reckless investments in infrastructure.

I suspect China slows sooner than Pettis thinks, but no sooner than the next regime change in China. Markets, however, may react well in advance.

Global Deflationary Outlook

Pettis does not use the word "deflation" in his writeup, but he describes a very deflationary global outlook complete with protectionism, beggar-thy-neighbor policies, currency wars, and falling non-food commodity prices.

Pettis did not discuss energy, but the forces are clear: peak oil. vs. global slowdown. Given peak oil and the possibility of war over it, energy is a wildcard.

China did not decouple in 2008 (except perhaps in reverse), and it will not be immune from this global slowdown either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers

The major story of the day is the leveraged EFSF is dead without a popular referendum and a new German constitution says Germany's top judge.

Please consider German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum

Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to �2 trillion (�1.7 trillion).

Andreas Vosskuhle, head of the constitutional court, said politicians do not have the legal authority to sign away the birthright of the German people without their explicit consent.

"The sovereignty of the German state is inviolate and anchored in perpetuity by basic law. It may not be abandoned by the legislature (even with its powers to amend the constitution)," he said.

"There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit � which might be politically legitimate and desirable � then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary. This cannot be done without the people," he told newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The extraordinary interview comes just days before the Bundestag votes on a bill to revamp the EU's �440bn bail-out fund (EFSF), enabling it to purchase EMU bonds pre-emptively and recapitalise banks.

Carsten Schneider, finance spokesman for the Social Democrats, demanded that Chancellor Angela Merkel and finance minister Wolfgang Sch�uble clarify their "true intentions " before the vote on Thursday.

"A new multi-trillion programme is being cooked up in Washington and Brussels, while the wool is being pulled over the eyes of Bundestag and German public. This is unacceptable," he said.

Prince Hermann Otto zu Solms-Hohensolms-Lich, the Bundestag's deputy president and finance chief for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, expressed outrage over the secret plans.

"Unless the German finance minister can give an immediate assurance that there will be no leveraged formula, I will not vote for this law. We might as well dispense with months of negotiations if all this means is that the Bundestag will be circumvented and served cold left-overs," he said.

The accusation that German leaders are conspiring with EU officials to emasculate the Bundestag is highly sensitive, going to the core of the raging debate in recent months over EU encroachments on German democracy.

The German court has already killed eurobonds. Now, if the top judge's call stands, leveraged EFSF just bit the dust as well.

Clearly the German court has had enough of Chancellor Angela Merkel, her cronies, and all the politicians who want to rob German taxpayers for their own agenda.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Germany Central Bank President Slams Debt Crisis Steps; Europe Goes All In; S&P Says Larger Europe Bailout Fund Could Weigh on Ratings

The open feud between the German Central Bank and the ECB widened significantly. Making matters even worse Chancellor Angela Merkel is also in an open feud with the Bundesbank.

Please consider, Top German central banker slams debt crisis steps

Germany's top central banker warns that efforts to halt the debt crisis in Europe could give countries incentives to run up deficits in the future.

The statements by Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann underline his differences with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and his fellow board members of the European Central Bank.

Weekend meetings of global financial leaders in Washington raised hopes of a change in strategy, with officials indicating that would focus on further boosting the firepower of the euro440 billion ($595 billion) rescue fund -- perhaps by allowing it to tap loans from the European Central Bank or otherwise leveraging its lending capacity.

Hopes for such a move boosted European stock markets on Monday, with German and French bank shares rising strongly.

However, ahead of a parliamentary vote Thursday on changes to the fund that eurozone leaders already agreed to in July, Berlin was keen to underline its attachment to its often-criticized step-by-step approach.

When asked in Washington whether he supported the idea of leveraging the rescue fund, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said: "Of course we will use the EFSF in the most efficient way possible."

Some in Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition already find the beefing up of the EFSF by giving it new powers hard to swallow, and anything beyond that could be a hard sell among its lawmakers.

Christian Lindner, the general secretary of the Free Democrats -- Merkel's junior coalition partner -- called on the chancellor to provide clarity and stressed that his party opposes allowing the fund to tap ECB loans.

The rescue measures were criticized once again by Germany's top central banker, Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann.

Weidmann said in a speech in Washington that the package of support measures for indebted governments "weakens the underlying principle of European monetary union that each country has to bear the full consequences of its own fiscal policy."

Efforts to shield governments from the consequences of their behavior means "we risk seeking the propensity for excessive deficits rise even further in the future."

Weidmann was until earlier this year Merkel's economic adviser, but since his appointment at the Bundesbank he has defended its traditional strict approach to monetary and fiscal policy.

Merkel has been caught between criticism from abroad for doing too little and from supporters at home who fear she is putting taxpayer money at risk. She went on German television Sunday night to defend her step-by-step tackling of the crisis.

She warned of the dangers a radical restructuring of Greek debt might bring at this stage.

"Lehman Brothers was allowed to go bust, and then the world was surprised that it fell into a deep crisis," Merkel said on ARD television. "What we have to learn is that we can only take steps we can really control."The rescue measures were criticized once again by Germany's top central banker, Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann.

Europe Goes All In

Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors writes EU Goes From Monetary Union To Suicide Pact

As alleged details are leaked about an alleged proposal to leverage the EFSF all I can do is cringe. I'm waiting for some actual details, but as far as I can tell, Europe is attempting go all in. It is going to make leveraged bets on itself. If it doesn't work, the senior debt holders will own Europe if the BRICs buy the senior tranche and will end in a fast and furious death spiral if the senior tranche is owned by the ECB or European banks. We may get a lift on the news. We are trying to rally on the back of the news right now. But if this plan goes ahead, even the slightest cold in the future will turn into the plague. There will be no strong countries left as they will have tied themselves to the PIIGS anchor with a Gordion Knot that will never be untied in time.

Haven't they seen what happens to SIV's? Are the so confident in an economic recovery that will risk it all at this time? If they get it wrong and it doesn't work, there will be no fall back.

All I can hope is they are tired and too happy with the late night "solution" and the markets initial reaction that after the initial euphoria, cooler heads, like Schaeuble, will prevail. This has the makings of an Epic disaster in the making.

Schaeuble a "Cool Head" or a "Clueless Minister"?

I agree with Tchir this has the makings of an epic disaster. However, I disagree that Schaeuble is a "cooler head".

Please consider this snip from a Eurointelligence Daily Briefing, September 22, 2011.

Mass circulation tabloid Bild launches a campaign against Wolfgang Sch�uble accusing him that he has been systematically misleading the German public on Greece and the euro crisis in the 18 months. In a scathing article it presents a long list with dates and contradictory statements on the need for a rescue program for Greece and the conditions attached to it.

Bild reporter Rolf Kleine adds to that a column under the title �Minister Clueless�. �Whether the billions for Greece will be sufficient to save the country from collapsing, whether the Euro will remain stable � all that is decided by the markets, not by the German finance minister. He can tell the people whatever he wants � and also the opposite�.

Please consider these Sch�uble Flip-Flops courtesy of Google Translate.

21st December 2009
"We Germans can not pay for Greece's problems."

16th March 2010
"Greece has not asked for help, this is why there is no decision, and there is no decision had been taken."

11th April 2010
Four weeks later, on 11 April, he decided to finance the first Euro-Greece-aid package of � 30 billion.

16th April 2010
"We still believe that the Greeks are on the right track and that they may end up not even have to take the help."

22nd April 2010
"The country has had no problems in financing themselves this week in the markets. The agreement on the assistance in an emergency has been a purely preventive measure."

Greece officially asked for help April 23. In early May a rescue package of 110 billion � was in the works.

27th April 2010
"Rescheduling not an issue"

May 2010
The 110 billion euros in the first aid package "ceiling" is a one-time emergency assistance.

21st March 2011
The EU finance ministers decide on a rescue fund with legendary 750 billion euros (ESM) - with the voice Sch�uble.

6th June 2011
Greece will receive a new package with more than 100 billion �. Sch�uble said: Otherwise, "we face the real risk of the first disordered state of insolvency within the euro zone."

AND WHAT'S NEXT?
Previously, the Finance Minister is on his no to common bonds of all euro countries, the so-called Euro-bonds remained. But perhaps he thinks it is so different again next week .

Unless the definition of "cool head" encompasses "clueless political hacks", Sch�uble is not a "cool head".

Larger Europe Bailout Fund Could Weigh on Ratings

Reuters reports Larger Europe Bailout Fund Could Weigh on Ratings

David Beers, the head of S&P's sovereign rating group, said it is still too soon to know how European policymakers will boost the European Financial Stability Facility, how effective that will be and its possible credit implications.

But he said the various alternatives could have "potential credit implications in different ways," including for leading euro zone countries such as France and Germany.

European officials, seeking more resources to protect the euro zone against fallout from its debt crisis, are considering ways to increase the impact of the 440 billion-euro fund by leveraging, although it remains unclear exactly how.

Beers said it was evident, however, that policymakers cannot leverage the EFSF without limits.

"There is some recognition in the euro zone that there is no cheap, risk-free leveraging options for the EFSF any more," Beers told Reuters.

Some analysts say at least 2 trillion euros would be needed to safeguard Italy and Spain if the Greek crisis spreads.

"We're getting to a point where the guarantee approach of the sort that the EFSF highlights is running out of road." Beers said in an interview late on Saturday.

Today, fueled by rumors of still more bailouts, the market rallied for umpteenth time, as if use of leverage to bail out Greece is a good idea. It isn't and just a week ago, the ECB was against the idea. Desperation has set in. If the ECB agrees to do this, Peter Tchir is correct: Europe essentially went "All In".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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