Chicago Public Schools System Is Broke; Union Contract Mandates Raises Through 2012; Expect Fireworks

The Chicago Public School system is broke. By now you know the score: pension promises cannot be met and union salaries and benefits are out of line with reality. Combined with bloated administration costs, the system is bankrupt.

The Sun Times says the best hope is for teachers to accept a wage freeze.

Best Hope? Not so fast.

The contract is not up until 2012, and knowing what we know about unions, the picture is set for massive teacher layoffs or a gut wrenching strike and legal battle if the CEO unilaterally imposes a wage freeze.

Please consider No way around CPS teacher pay freeze.

Chicago Public Schools CEO Ron Huberman on Thursday painted the grimmest financial picture the Chicago schools have ever seen.

The budget deficit could top $900 million, a hole so big that Huberman says he needs major concessions from teachers -- a move that could easily lead to a teachers' strike if the unions refuse to play ball.

We're not alerting parents to cause a panic or to bash beleaguered teachers.

We're alerting parents now, when there's still time, to try to resolve this crisis and avoid a strike.

The best hope is for the Chicago teachers to accept a wage freeze.

Huberman can't say that out loud. On Thursday, he simply laid out the sorry facts of the deficit, saying concessions are one piece of a multi-part solution. He's courting the unions now, giving them a chance to pick their poison, hoping they'll offer up cost-saving ideas.

It is nearly impossible to see a way out of this mess -- or a teachers' strike -- without a wage freeze.

The Chicago Teachers Union contract locks in 4 percent raises through 2012 -- really about 5.5 percent with experience and higher degrees added in. Eliminating that raise in 2011 saves $135 million.

Undoubtedly, the union will balk at a wage freeze. Already, Union President Marilyn Stewart has rejected altering the union contract.

In turn, Huberman won't budge, arguing he has no cash to spare -- and he won't be lying.

CPS' massive budget deficit, Huberman says, is driven by three biggies: a $138 million drop in tax revenue, $135 million in increased salary costs and, most significantly, a $280 million increase in its pension bill.

Ron Huberman isn't crying wolf.

It's time for big concessions now -- rather than face massive disruption in the schools and an ugly and fruitless strike down the road.

Not Crying Wolf

The article is loaded with sap like the writer's opinion "No one wants to deny hard-working teachers a raise." In reality, union salaries and benefits must be brought into alignment with private sector jobs.

The wolf is real. There is no money and tax hikes are out of the question. With 4 percent raises locked in through 2012, one hell of a battle is brewing.

In theory, there are plenty of things besides a pay freeze that could help. One thing would be elimination of defined benefit plans for all new hires and if one got really creative, for all teachers hired in the last 5 years. Of course one could also cut administrative salaries and staff as well.

Both need to be done.

However, theory is one thing and practice is another. Unions being unions, and administrators being administrators, neither will be willing to negotiate a fair compromise. Instead, look for massive teacher layoffs as the union and administrators throw the kids to the howling wolves.

By the way, I am not talking about just Chicago. Expect to witness a nationwide phenomenon of teachers unions and administrators combine to throw kids to the wolves to protect their own cushy jobs.

Addendum:

"LA Girl" just pinged me with ...

I sat next to a public school teacher at a dinner party last night. He was saying there is total "war" going on at his school right now because they are voting on whether to convert to a charter school. He blatantly, casually said with no shame whatsoever that converting to charter would be better for the students, but he planned to vote against it because it wasn't clear his benefits and salary would be protected. He said this same thing is going on at several other public elementary and high schools in L.A.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

What Do Concert Ticket Sales Say About The Economy?

Here is an interesting Email from "Ticket Salesman", a former CEO of an industrial supply company who saw the debacle coming and cashed out a few years back. To keep busy, not out of necessity, he is now involved in concert ticket sales.

"Ticket Salesman" writes:

Hi Mish

I don't care what the media says, the economy is getting worse and I can see it in ticket sales and even questions about tickets.

Last February, most of my ticket sales were requesting "Best available" and big concerts sold out within days or weeks, typically a month or more before the concert. Concerts sold out from the front (highest ticket price) to the back.

By mid summer, I began to notice that the buying was changing. Concerts sold from the front and from the back but the middle seats were selling last. I have only voices to gauge age but it seems to me that the 40-55 crowd had begun to disappear.

By early fall, the cheap seats were selling out first. This pattern started first in Chicago, spread throughout the midwest, then over to the Carolinas, south to Florida and across to Arizona.

Since December, the most often question that I get is "If I buy at the venue, do I have to pay the service charge?"

Ticket agents charge a ticket fee of 10-15% on each ticket and a year ago I never had a single complaint or a question about the ticket fee.

If you are buying 6 tickets with a $12 fee each, I can see it making better sense to spend an hour and go to the venue, but if you are buying 2 tickets and having to drive for a hour, park and stand in line, is it really worth it?

Throughout all this, the college crowd consistently bought without complaint. That has changed since Christmas. Now, the college kids are trying to beat the $6-8 ticket fees.

Concert sales in the Northeast and California almost always sold out, but now California is beginning to soften, especially with the younger crowd. The deterioration has been slow, but constant for a year and I don't see any signs of improvement.

Glenn Beck and Bill O'Reilly did a show at Westbury in January. So did Bill Maher. Westbury is on Long Island and the theatre is small, perhaps 3000 seats. It is theatre in the round and sometimes they run it as half round.

The Beck/O'reilly show started out 1/2 round and sold out in minutes. People called for hours wanting tickets. Then Westbury decided to go full round the next day and the rest sold out within an hour. People called for weeks wanting tickets.

On the other hand, the Bill Maher show only sold about 70% of the 1/2 round at Westbury. The show sold so poorly that they closed the back seats and moved people forward to make it look better.

I sell Westbury all the time. Most of the people that call me are older, retired, and almost all have American Express cards and AOL e-mail addresses.

I would have thought that the results would have been that Bill Maher would have sold out and the Beck/O'Reilly concert not sold out. I was just amazed.

Keep up the good work.

"Ticket Salesman"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Retail Sales Rise: Where? Let's Take a Look; Expect Nothing Less Than Panic

In response to For 15 Million Unemployed any Job is a Good Job; Questions for Pollyannas; Wishes Aren't Fishes reader "Sunny Jim" asks ...

Mish

What puzzles me is that with such large numbers of people without jobs or adequate jobs, how can retail sales continue to hold their own? If people still had their house ATM or were increasing their credit card debt, I could see how they could keep spending at pre-recession levels. But people are paying down debt, not increasing it. Something just doesn't jibe IMO.

With the current job situation, I would expect to see retail sales at something like 90% of the bubble years sales. Do you have any retail sales data that verifies the stress in the employment situation?

Advance Retail Sales

In essence, Sunny Jim is questioning the January 2010 Advance Retail Sales Report from the US Census Bureau, released on February 12.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $355.8 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month and 4.7 percent above January 2009.

Total sales for the November 2009 through January 2010 period were up 4.3 percent from the same period a year ago.

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent from December 2009 and 5.3 percent above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 29.0 percent from January 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 12.4 percent from last year.

Gasoline Sales

The only thing believable in the census bureau report is rising gasoline sales in terms of dollars spent, not gallons sold. The latter is a measure of real demand.

Here is a chart of real energy remand from the Department of Energy.



Demand is down but gasoline sales and sales taxes are up because price has soared.

Methodology Is Completely Bogus

To understand why the Advance Retail Sales report is completely bogus, we must first analyze the Census Bureau Methodology.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms.

My Reply To Sunny Jim

Sunny Jim
Retail sales are not what they seem

I have written about this before but not enough. The published numbers are based on "same store sales". Think about all the companies that have gone bankrupt. Take Circuit City for an example. Gone. The doors are closed. Some of those shoppers went to Best Buy where same store sales rose.

Also remember that Best Buy and many other chains closed weak stores. The result: same store sales went up again.

Government methodology for reporting retail sales is based on sampling stores in existence. It does not factor in stores not in existence but recently were. Nor does it handle closed stores when the chain is still doing business.

Government reporting of retail sales is fatally flawed.

To understand what is going on, all one has to look at actual tax data. Heard any rosy numbers from states about sales tax collections?

Let's take a look at some real numbers.

New York

Sales tax collections worst in recent history

Feb 28, 2010

As if there wasn�t enough proof of an aching economy, the Office of the State Comptroller recently issued a report on the sales tax collection for all counties in New York state in 2009, providing even more evidence that the economy is struggling.

The report released by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli compares 2009 to 2008 collections, and found a 5.9 decrease in collections statewide.

Sales tax-declines were experienced by 53 of the 57 counties in the report. Only four � Chatauqua, Oneida, Schuyler, and Seneca � counties experienced a growth in sales tax revenue, but the report attributes it to other factors other than economic growth, like late payments and other technical adjustments.

�Unlike other recent downturns, 2009 was the first time in recent history that there was actually a decline in county sales tax revenue � a sign of the severity of the recent recession,� the report reads. �The sales tax decline in 2009 was one of the worst on record.�

�This is yet another sign that the Great Recession is having a continuing impact on our communities across New York,� DiNapoli said in a release. �These numbers are sobering. Fortunately, many local governments have taken sometimes painful budgetary steps to stave off disaster. It�s a struggle, but all levels of government have to make every taxpayer dime count.�

The report didn�t offer much room for optimism, stating that tax collections are largely driven by two factors � personal income and employment.
�Both of these factors are expected to remain weak in 2010,� the report reads.

Indiana

Monthly Net Collections Reports

December 2009 Sales Tax: 476,111,101.58
December 2008 Sales Tax: 497,628,352.13

November 2009 Sales Tax: 473,363,430.53
November 2008 Sales Tax: 504,327,778.19

October 2009 Sales Tax: 485,658,222.21
October 2008 Sales Tax: 546,284,648.12

Take a good look at those numbers. By the way, the only comparisons that make any sense are the way I just did it above.

Texas

Texas Sales Tax Collections

January 2010 State Sales Tax Collections To General Revenue
State sales tax net collections* deposited to general revenue totaled $1,655.3 million in January 2010. Compared with the $1,928.3 million collected in January 2009, this represents a decrease of 14.2 percent.

December 2009 State Sales Tax Collections To General Revenue
State sales tax net collections* deposited to general revenue totaled $1,653.1 million in December 2009. Compared with the $1,869.4 million collected in December 2008, this represents a decrease of 11.6 percent.

November 2009 State Sales Tax Collections To General Revenue
State sales tax net collections* deposited to general revenue totaled $1,696.9 million in November 2009. Compared with the $1,983.1 million collected in November 2008, this represents a decrease of 14.4 percent.

October 2009 State Sales Tax Collections To General Revenue
State sales tax net collections* deposited to general revenue totaled $1,517.9 million in October 2009. Compared with the $1,739.8 million collected in October 2008, this represents a decrease of 12.8 percent.

January 2010: $1,655.3 million
January 2009: $1,928.3 million

December 2009: $1,653.1 million
December 2008: $1,869.4 million

November 2009: $1,696.9 million
November 2008: $1,983.1 million

October 2009: $1,517.9 million
October 2008: $1,739.8 million

Once again, unadjusted numbers vs. a year ago are the only valid way of looking at data. Same store sales, comparisons to projections, and non-seasonally adjusted comparisons to the previous month are all bogus comparisons.

Tennessee

January State Revenue: Sales Tax Still Down, But Not As Much

February 10, 2010

Finance Commissioner Dave Goetz said today that state revenue collections in January, which reflect December activity, are still running below budget expections and sales taxes collections have now shown "negative growth" for 20 consecutive months.

Still, Goetz told reporters that there are some slightly positive signs in the figures. For the first time in many months, the total Tennessee tax collections were actually a bit above the level of the prior month a year ago -- in this case, January of 2008.

Also, he says business tax collections are still running above expectations and sales taxes are not down as much as they have been. Car sales were up for the third consecutive month, for example.

"January is the 20th consecutive month in which sales taxes have recorded negative growth." Finance and Administration Commissioner Dave Goetz said.

"January collections represent December holiday sales, which brought reports of positive growth at the national level, so it's very disappointing that we didn't have a similar experience in Tennessee."

The sad state of affairs is US Government reporting is screwing up the minds of state commissioners like Dave Goetz led to believe their state did not have a "similar rise" in sales.

U.S. Sales Tax Collections

Sales tax collections rise in U.S. states: report

Jan 13, 2010

Sales tax revenues in U.S. states rose in December from their anemic state in November but are still far from returning to the levels seen in the middle of last decade, according to a report released on Wednesday.

More than a quarter of states in a survey conducted by economic newsletter The Liscio Report met or exceeded forecast sales tax collections, up from 18 percent in November.

In November, no state registered sales tax revenue growth over the year, but by December 13 percent enjoyed growth.

Notice the spin on the headline, comparing December to November, a bogus comparison because of Christmas.

Also note that only 13% of states are reporting growth which means that 87% of states have flat to declining sales. Amazingly the headline has a positive spin that revenues was up.

Even then, close observers will note that revenues were up vs. projections. That does not mean they were up at all. That was very sloppy reporting, at best.

Alabama

Alabama tax collections back down for state education, general funds

February 02, 2010

Taxes collected by the state Education Trust Fund continue to jump around from month to month, with tax collections in January dropping 17.5 percent, or $80.7 million, compared to January 2009, the state finance department reported Monday.

That followed a gain of 13.5 percent in December compared to December 2008 and a drop of 6.7 percent in November compared to November 2008.

Overall, taxes collected by the trust fund, the main source of state tax dollars for public schools, colleges and universities, totaled $1.364 billion in November through January, down $58.7 million, or 4.1 percent, compared to the same period a year before.

Net personal and corporate income taxes in those three months totaled $807 million, a drop of $41.1 million, or 4.9 percent, compared to the same period a year before.

Net sales tax collections for the trust fund in those three months totaled $367.5 million, a drop of $4.9 million, or 1.3 percent, compared to the same period a year before.

Georgia

State Tax Collections Down Again

February 10, 2010

It was another tough month for Georgia revenue collections. Governor Sonny Perdue�s office says for the month of January, collections dipped 8.7 percent from the same month a year earlier. That now makes it 14 straight months of declining tax revenue.

For the fiscal year ending June 30th, revenues are down almost 13 percent.

The 31 retailers file for bankruptcy in 2009

• Penn Traffic:11/18
• Hackett's Department Store: 11/10
• InkStop: 10/1
• Sacino & Sons: 9/11
• Samsonite: 9/2
• Escada: 8/13
• Finlay: 8/5
• Bashas: 7/12
• Crabtree & Evelyn: 7/1.
• Best & Co: 6/26
• Eddie Bauer: 6/17
• Arcandor: 6/9
• Oilily: 5/28
• Anchor Blue: 5/28
• Door Store: 5/27
• Filene's Basement: 5/4
• Bi-Lo: 4/19
• Z Gallerie: 4/10
• Ultra Jewelry: 4/9
• Big 10 Tires: 4/2
• Zounds Hearing Aid Centers:3/30
• Al Baskin Co: 3/23
• Drug Fair: 3/18
• Strasburg-Jarvis: 3/11
• Joe's Sports & Outdoor Stores: 3/4
• Everything but Water: 2/25
• Ritz Camera; 2/22
• S&K Famous Brand: 2/9
• Fortunoff: 2/5
• Bruno's Supermarkets: 2/5
• Gottschalks: 1/14

The above list thanks to: Retail Insights

Some of those stores may still be in business. However, those chains that are still in business closed many poorly performing stores, boosting same store sales figures in the remaining stores.

Distortions In Same Store Sales

Ann Taylor: The women's apparel chain has increased the number of stores it will close this year to 163 from 117 as part of its cost-cutting program to save $125 million over the three years ending in January 2011.

Finlay: The jeweler filed for Chapter 11 protection on August 6, 2009. It currently sells jewelry at about 77 department store locations and operates about 106 stand-alone jewelry stores as Bailey Banks & Biddle, Carlyle & Co Jewelers and L. Congress. The company listed assets and debt in the range of $500 million to $1 billion in its Chapter 11 filing.

Zales: Jeweler closed 118 underperforming stores in its fourth quarter, which ended July 31. Year to date for 2009, Zale has shut down 191 locations. Of the closings, 31 were kiosks and 160 were retail stores.

Kmart: Big box retailer plans to close three Detroit stores in Fall 2009 with liquidation sales beginning on August 30, 2009. According to Kmart spokeswoman Kimberly Freely, these locations will close due to "a number of factors," including poor sales performance or failure to negotiate favorable lease terms.

Retail Sales Up - Not

"Duane1X " on the Motley Fool did an excellent post about retail sales on December 17, 2009 called Retail Sales Up... NOT

Retail sales were not up then, and they are still not up now as recent data shows.

One final point. Sales taxes have gone up in many states, thus actual sales are even more depressed than appears at first glance.

No Need To Panic?

Texas sales tax collections are $1 billion behind

February 28, 2010

Four months into its new two-year budget, Texas already is nearly $1 billion behind its expected pace of sales tax collections, according to new figures released Friday.

Comptroller Susan Combs said there's no need for panic, as tax collections should start growing again in the first or second quarter of the year.

But the decline is dramatic. A year ago, Combs forecast essentially flat sales taxes receipts in the budget year that started Sept. 1; instead, they've decreased by 12.9 percent in the first four months.

There is every reason for states to panic. Expect nothing less than panic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-02-28: Lighter Side of the News

In actual news, inquiring minds will be pleased to note that the Canadian women's hockey team knows how to properly celebrate an Olympic gold medal.

Canadian women's hockey celebration with cigars and beer draws scrutiny from International Olympic Committee

Nearly an hour after the Canadians won their third consecutive Olympic gold medal with a 2-0 win over the Americans, the players came back out on the ice in the near-empty arena, smoking cigars and swigging champagne and beer. (Rebecca Johnston even tried to drive the zamboni.)



Star-Ledger photographer Andy Mills captured 18-year-old Marie-Philip Poulin, who scored both goals in the gold-medal game, drinking Molson Canadian beer. Poulin doesn't turn 19 � the legal drinking age in British Columbia � until next month. The Canadian team trains in Alberta, where the legal drinking age is 18.

Congratulations to Canada.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

For 15 Million Unemployed any Job is a Good Job; Questions for Pollyannas; Wishes Aren't Fishes

Let's take a look at the employment situation and prospects for jobs starting with the cold hard numbers as they exist today. Please consider the following grim unemployment statistics.

• 14.8 million unemployed
• 3.8 million want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked in the past four weeks
  
• 8.3 million have a part-time job, but want a full time job

Total that up and you will see there are 26.9 million people who are unemployed or underemployed.

Bear in mind the above numbers do not count self-employed real estate agents without a sale for months, salesmen on commission only, those selling trinkets on Ebay and many other ventures where income has precipitously plunged, sometimes to zero.

Also note that part-time job workers for even a few hours a week, are still considered employed.

Of the unemployed, 6.3 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer. The average duration of unemployment is 30.2 weeks.

Those mind-numbing statistics are straight from the BLS Employment Situation Report For January 2010.

Unemployment Projections

Bernanke is only fooling himself if he thinks this situation will turn around soon.I believe we are going to see the unemployment rate above 9% all the way out to 2015 even if there is no double-dip recession.

I made those projections in Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 and covered it again in Mapping Unemployment - You Make The Call - Downloadable Spreadsheet.

The Fed has given new unemployment projections that I believe are from Mars, and when I get a chance I will try and map them to show just what it will take to reach the Fed's targets.

Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs

26.9 million is such a huge number that it is hard to equate to. Yet those are real people, many whose lives are permanently destroyed. Moreover, If my projections are correct, many of those jobs are not coming back for years, and most likely ever.

The New York Times puts some names and faces of the "New Poor" in an gut-wrenching four page article Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs.

Even as the American economy shows tentative signs of a rebound, the human toll of the recession continues to mount, with millions of Americans remaining out of work, out of savings and nearing the end of their unemployment benefits.



Call them the new poor: people long accustomed to the comforts of middle-class life who are now relying on public assistance for the first time in their lives � potentially for years to come.

Yet the social safety net is already showing severe strains. Roughly 2.7 million jobless people will lose their unemployment check before the end of April unless Congress approves the Obama administration�s proposal to extend the payments, according to the Labor Department.

�American business is about maximizing shareholder value,� said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at the research firm Decision Economics. �You basically don�t want workers. You hire less, and you try to find capital equipment to replace them.�

During periods of American economic expansion in the 1950s, �60s and �70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a research firm. During expansions in the 1980s and �90s, jobs grew just 2.4 percent annually. And during the last decade, job growth fell to 0.9 percent annually.

�The pace of job growth has been getting weaker in each expansion,� Mr. Achuthan said. �There is no indication that this pattern is about to change.�

On average, only two-thirds of unemployed people received state-provided unemployment checks last year, according to the Labor Department. The rest either exhausted their benefits, fell short of requirements or did not apply.

�You have very large sets of people who have no social protections,� said Randy Albelda, an economist at the University of Massachusetts in Boston. �They are landing in this netherworld.�

�We have a work-based safety net without any work,� said Timothy M. Smeeding, director of the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. �People with more education and skills will probably figure something out once the economy picks up. It�s the ones with less education and skills: that�s the new poor.�

Until she was laid off two years ago, Janine Booth, 41, brought home roughly $10,000 a month in commissions from her job selling electronics to retailers. A single mother of three, she has been living lately on $2,000 a month in child support and about $450 a week in unemployment insurance � a stream of checks that ran out last week.

She sends out dozens of r�sum�s a week and rarely hears back. She responds to online ads, only to learn they are seeking operators for telephone sex lines or people willing to send mysterious packages from their homes.

On a recent weekend, she was running errands with her 18-year-old son when they stopped at an A.T.M. and he saw her checking account balance: $50.

�He says, �Is that all you have?� � she recalled. � �Are we going to be O.K.?� �

Last week, she made up fliers advertising her eagerness to clean houses � the same activity that provided her with spending money in high school, and now the only way she sees fit to provide for her kids. She plans to place the fliers on porches in some other neighborhood.

�I don�t want to clean my neighbors� houses,� she said. �I know I�m going to come out of this. There�s no way I�m going to be homeless and poverty-stricken. But I am scared. I have a lot of sleepless nights.�

There are many more stories like that in the article. Please take a look. More importantly, play that story out 20 million times because that is what is happening in the real world.

Job Growth

Here is a key snip about job growth from the article "During expansion in the 1950s, �60s and �70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year. During expansions in the 1980s and �90s, jobs grew just 2.4 percent annually. And during the last decade, job growth fell to 0.9 percent annually."

There are 138 million employed. If the economy added 1% a year, that would be 1.38 million workers a year. Yet, it takes 100,000 to 125,000 jobs a month to keep up with birth rate plus immigration.

Thus it takes 1.2 million to 1.5 million jobs a year just to hold the unemployment rate steady!

Questions For Pollyannas

• Think the unemployment rate is going to drop rapidly?
• Is another housing boom coming?
• Is commercial real estate going to be the savior?
• Think we can sustainably create 200,000 jobs a month?
• Is this a faith based economy where wishes are fishes?

Wishes Aren't Fishes

I do not think the economy will create 200,000 jobs a month given the sorry backdrop of debt, deleveraging, and poor housing fundamentals, but even if wishes were fishes and that many jobs magically appeared, the unemployment rate would only drop by 1% or so a year.

That backdrop should help put union whining over not getting an 8% raise into perspective.

In case you missed it, please consider San Francisco Infested with Union Parasites and Pestilence; Outrage Over Transit Worker Pay.

It is hard to have anything but contempt for transit workers moaning about not getting an 8% raise when there are 26.9 million unemployed or underemployed people who would gladly do anything on the premise "Any job is a good job".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Elizabeth Warren on the Coming Commercial Real Estate Crisis; 3000 Community Banks at Risk

Here are a couple of stories similar to thousands playing out across the country, and tens of thousands more to come. The second article gets to the heart of the upcoming commercial real estate bust.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting Brookdale Mall sold at auction for big markdown.

A sheriff's foreclosure auction produced just one bid -- from the mall's mortgage-holders, who bid $12.5 million.



Photo By Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune

Brookdale Center went on the auction block at a sheriff's foreclosure sale Friday, netting just one bid of $12.5 million from the shopping mall's lenders.

The bid from Brookdale Mall HH LLC was well below the $51.8 million owed on a $54.2 million mortgage by the property's owners, Brooks Mall Properties of Coral Gables, Fla.

Sears is its sole remaining anchor. In the last couple of years Macy's, Barnes & Noble and Mervyn's have all closed their stores. The mall also has lost other key tenants, such as Steve & Barry's. Almost 60 percent of its space is vacant, according to recent figures from NorthMarq.

Commercial Real Estate Crisis Coming

The following story headline masquerades as a local (D.C.) problem but the real story buried in the article is a few select quotes from Elizabeth Warren.

Please consider In D.C., more evidence that commercial real estate headed for foreclosure crisis.

A mortgage crisis like the one that has devastated homeowners is enveloping the nation's office and retail buildings, and few places are likely to be hit as hard as Washington.

The foreclosure wave is likely to swamp many smaller community banks across the country, and many well-known properties, including Washington's Mayflower Hotel and the Boulevard at the Capital Centre in Largo, are at risk, industry analysts say.

"There's been an enormous bubble in commercial real estate, and it has to come down," said Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, the watchdog created by Congress to monitor the financial bailout. "There will be significant bankruptcies among developers and significant failures among community banks."

Nearly 3,000 community banks -- 40 percent of the banking system -- have a high proportion of commercial real estate loans relative to their capital, said Warren, whose committee issued a report on commercial real estate last week. "Every dollar they lose in commercial real estate is a dollar they can't use for small businesses," she said. Individuals -- who saw their home values drop in the residential mortgage crisis -- would not feel that kind of loss, but, Warren said, a large-scale failure would "throw sand into the gears of economic recovery."

In Washington, the office vacancy rate stopped ballooning in the fourth quarter of last year for the first time since the first quarter of 2006, according to CoStar, although largely for an unfortunate reason: The space was being filled mainly by office workers hired to handle the plethora of bankruptcy filings and "workouts" of borrowers who need to renegotiate bad debt.

Do the math'

Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of residential mortgages are underwater now, she said.

Unlike residential mortgages, which often can be paid over 30 years, commercial real estate mortgages typically must be paid off or refinanced within five years. Commercial properties mortgaged in 2005, 2006 and 2007, at the height of the boom, are reaching their maturity date. "Do the math on this," Warren said. "This is a significant problem."

Do The Math Indeed

There is a strong potential to see a thousand commercial real estate bank failures in the next couple of years unless Congress acts to bail them out. Bernanke is unlikely to lift a finger as his concern is for the big boys, who he will support at any and all costs.

Of course no banks should be bailed out, and two wrongs do not make a right. Thus, the correct decision is to let failed banks fail. The last thing we need is further bank zombification.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

San Francisco Infested with Union Parasites and Pestilence; Outrage Over Transit Worker Pay

In San Francisco, greedy public unions finally overplayed their hand. It's happening all across the country actually, but every city, county, township thinks "It's different here".

The news of the day for unions and their sympathizers is the public is finally fed up being raped by public unions. The San Francisco Chronicle reports Outrage grows over Muni operators' pay.

The city's Muni operators are about to have one of those "uh-oh" moments. You know, that awkward instant when a group realizes that it overplayed its hand - badly.

Even in San Francisco, a union town where labor issues are treated with kid gloves, politicians and transit riders are teeing off on the drivers like they stole rent money from little old ladies.

"There is no question in my mind that they completely misread the public," Mayor Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. "Either they step up or the people of San Francisco will."

Friday, the Municipal Transportation Agency will vote on ways to balance its budget.

Riders have already seen fare hikes and service cuts and they may face them again thanks to Muni operators who rejected a proposal for a package of concessions that would have saved the agency $15 million over two years. Those savings could have temporarily reduced service cuts and some fee hikes.

But 575 operators voted in favor of the concessions and 857 were against the plan even though Muni operators are guaranteed an 8 percent raise. Their pay, protected by the city charter, ensures they are at least the second-highest paid operators in the nation.

Cue the torches and pitchforks, the local populace is enraged. This may be about pension plans and compensation concessions in City Hall, but for long-suffering Muni riders, it tapped into the anger of every time a bus door was slammed in their face or every driver who snarled a response to a question. So while union officials were chanting, "No givebacks! No concessions!" they were winning the economic battle and losing the public relations war.

"There has been this huge level of outrage," said Drew Hoolhorst, whose anti-Muni rant in his blog, "Rocket Shoes," has been getting a huge response. "This is real anger."

Supervisor Sean Elsbernd said he plans to gather the 60,000 signatures needed to put a charter amendment on the November ballot that would have pay, benefits and work rules negotiated through collective bargaining. Elsbernd pulled the amendment in hopes the union would approve the concessions, but he says all bets are off since the proposal was rebuffed.

"I am going forward with the petition regardless if they vote again. That's a lot of signatures, but if ever there was an issue when you could bet on it, this is it," Elsbernd said.

Rocket Shoes' Message To San Francisco Muni Workers

Warning... This contains harsh language.

Inquiring minds just might be interested in the message "Rocket Shoes Open Letter To SF Muni"

Dear SF Muni,
**** you.
Let me start over.
**** you.

I�m done with your lies.

You show up late. When you do show up, you�re a total *******. Your driver acts like it�s a serious inconvenience that I�ve burdened him with the �driving people around in a bus� part of his �driving people around in a bus� part of his job. ...

Union Greed Nothing Short Of Amazing

It is hard to be surprised by union greed, but rejecting an 8% pay raise with a contract that guarantees they get the second highest pay in the nation, sets a new standard for public union greed and arrogance.

That aside, Supervisor Sean Elsbernd is making a major mistake. The only thing unions understand is total and complete annihilation. Moreover, what the union fully deserves is complete annihilation.

The union pests need to be treated like the termites they are. Thus Elsbernd should be gathering signatures to completely privatize the transportation system.

Negotiation with unions as with termites, simply does not work. Extermination is the only solution. Unfortunately, termites are a much easier problem to deal with.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Landlords Squeezed by Lack of Good Tenants; Cap-and-Trade Dead; Violent Student Protest at Berkeley; Jobless Benefits Phase Out Sunday

Here are a few interesting stories over the past few days that caught my eye. The one bright spot is that Cap-And-Trade is officially dead. The rest show that structural problems continue to mount.

Landlords Squeezed By Small Pool Of Good Tenants

Landlords not so quick to evict in slow economy

Despite the sour economy, evictions in Davidson County [Tennessee] fell by nearly 10 percent in January from a year ago, and they're on track to fall even further this month.

Landlords know they'll have trouble finding new tenants if they lose the ones they have, industry observers say, so some of them are more willing to give struggling tenants a break.

"The economy has hit the apartment industry in a lot of different ways," said Brad Cathers, past president of the Tennessee Apartment Association and president of Lighthouse Property Management Group in Nashville.

"It's changed the way a lot of people live, who is looking to rent, how many units are rented, and it's certainly true � some companies are giving a little more latitude to renters who find themselves in trouble."

The change may have begun in 2008 and intensified in 2009. Davidson County court records show that 7 percent fewer detainer warrants were filed last year than two years earlier. Detainer warrants typically are filed for failure to pay rent, said Ricky Rooker, Davidson County's circuit court clerk.

The cost of removing someone from a unit, cleaning, painting and maybe even laying new carpet has a lot to do with landlords' reluctance to evict, Cathers said.

But that's not the only reason that fewer eviction proceedings are being filed.

"The pool of potential renters is just smaller," Cathers said. "Young people are moving back in with parents, and older people are moving in with children. And roommates � they are going two to three to a unit today instead of renting the two or three separate apartments they might have occupied before the recession began."
More units, fewer takers

So the number of units available for rent has reached levels unseen in Nashville since the 1980s, according to the association's data.

With fewer people lining up to rent, landlords have a powerful incentive to try to work with people who just need a little more time to pay, said Dan Ford, director of property management for Freeman Webb Inc., which operates 35 apartment complexes in the Nashville area and 33 others in Tennessee.

Violent Student Protest at U.C. Berkeley

Berkeley fee protest turns rowdy

A late-night protest against fee hikes at UC Berkeley turned violent early this morning when a crowd of about 200 people lit trash can fires, smashed at least one store's windows, occupied a university building and clashed with police, officials said.

At around 1:30 a.m., arguments turned tense between the protesters and Berkeley police who were monitoring the gathering, and within 20 minutes some in the crowd lit a large trash can on fire and shoved it toward officers, police said.

That's when a full-out riot erupted, with officers pushing the crowd back so firefighters could get at the flaming can and protesters flinging bottles and at the police, authorities said.

Members of the crowd lit more cans on fire. The crowds surged forward, police shoved them back with batons, and then the crowd would surge again, officials said.

"The crowd got out of control, and rocks and bottles were thrown," said Berkeley police spokesman Officer Andrew Frankel.

The crowd was finally quelled by 3:30 a.m., leaving debris and still-flaming trash cans all over Telegraph Avenue near the university's entrance.

Social unrest begins. Expect to see much more of it.

Jet Engine Maker Pratt & Whitney Battles Union

Pratt & Whitney announces layoffs, appeal of ruling blocking shift of 1,000 jobs from Conn.

Jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney delivered a blow to its unionized work force Tuesday, announcing it will lay off 163 employees and appeal a judge's decision blocking it from moving 1,000 jobs out of Connecticut.

Just hours after announcing the planned layoffs at its Cheshire and East Hartford facilities, company president David Hess said Pratt & Whitney strongly disagreed with the federal court's ruling earlier this month and planned to file an appeal.

Hess told employees in a letter that the subsidiary of United Technologies Corp. is reacting to a downturn in the airline industry due to the recession. Closing two engine repair businesses and moving the jobs to Georgia, Japan and Singapore would reduce costs by more than $53 million a year, he said.

"The impact on families and communities is significant and these decisions are never taken lightly," Hess said. "But unfortunately, I do not have the luxury of considering only the fate of the employees who are directly affected by this decision. I need to think about all 36,000 employees of Pratt & Whitney and the company's long-term health and competitiveness."

U.S. District Judge Janet Hall ruled Feb. 5 that Pratt & Whitney failed to make every effort to preserve the jobs in Connecticut as required by its contract with the machinists union.

James Parent, the union's chief negotiator, said the union will demand that Pratt & Whitney prove that the layoffs, which represent about 20 percent of the jobs at the two facilities, are related to falling volume and are not an attempt to shift jobs in violation of the court ruling.

Unions Win Battle Lose War

I have to side with the unions on this one. They had a clause in their contract "to make every effort to preserve the jobs in Connecticut". However, the contract expires in December. There is no way on earth that clause will be repeated in the next contract.

If the union had an ounce of common sense, it would strike the clause upfront and ask Pratt & Whitney what it would take to keep the jobs in Connecticut for another three years.

But unions never look ahead. Instead I expect a bitter strike in December with the end result in every job being moved to Georgia or overseas.

Jobless Benefits Phase Out Starting Sunday

Jobless benefits start ending on Sunday

Depending on extended unemployment benefits to see you through the Great Recession?

You'd better not: The Senate failed to push back the Feb. 28 deadline to apply for this safety net. Starting Monday, the jobless will no longer be able to apply for federal unemployment benefits or the COBRA health insurance subsidy.

Federal unemployment benefits kick in after the basic state-funded 26 weeks of coverage expire. During the downturn, Congress has approved up to an additional 73 weeks, which it funds.

These federal benefit weeks are divided into tiers, and the jobless must apply each time they move into a new tier.

Because the Senate did not act, the jobless will now stop getting checks once they run out of their state benefits or current tier of federal benefits.

That could be devastating to the unemployed who were counting on that income. In total, more than one million people could stop getting checks next month, with nearly 5 million running out of benefits by June, according to the National Unemployment Law Project.

Lawmakers repeatedly tried to approve a 30-day extension this week, but each time, Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., prevented the $10 billion measure from passing, saying it needs to be paid for first.

This is not the first time unemployment insurance benefits -- which enjoy wide bipartisan support -- have fallen prey to politics. Last fall, the House approved adding up to 20 weeks to the federal benefits period. But it took seven weeks for the Senate to send it to the president's desk, during which time more than 200,000 people stopped receiving checks.

It will be interesting to see how much resolve Bunning has. More than likely Congress will pass something next week. If not then, probably the week after.

Cap-And-Trade Dead
Key senators would nix 'cap and trade'

Three key senators are writing a new climate bill without a broad "cap-and-trade" approach to reducing carbon pollution, leaving behind what has been the central feature in the debate over climate legislation for years, The Washington Post reported Friday night.

Cap and trade, in which overall pollution reduction targets are met by allowing facilities to buy and sell pollution credits, has become so politically unpopular that its Senate passage is viewed as unlikely.

So Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., are planning an alternative to be introduced next month, the Post reported on its Web site. The bill would apply different carbon controls to different sectors of the economy instead of taking a national approach.

According to participants, Graham told environmental leaders in a meeting Wednesday that "cap-and-trade is dead," the Post said.

The new bill by Kerry, Graham and Lieberman, who have taken lead roles in the climate debate, would apply different approaches to three major emission sources: electric utilities, transportation and industry, the Post said, attributing the details to unidentified people familiar with the process.

Utilities would have to meet an overall emissions cap that would grow stricter over time. A carbon tax could be levied on motor fuel. And industrial facilities would be exempted from an emissions cap for several years, before it would be phased in.

Cap-And-Trade was one of the dumbest ideas ever. Thus, it's a wonder it did not pass. It could have given the House passed the legislation. Fortunately the Senate refused to go along.

New Jersey pension fund is underfunded by $46 Billion

N.J. pension fund is underfunded by $46B, as gap continues to grow

New Jersey's pension system is underfunded by nearly $46 billion, a more than 30 percent increase in a year, and as a result the state's annual bill has grown to $3 billion, according to a new analysis released today by the state Treasury department.

Lawmakers are working on bills that would scale back pension benefits for future hires, but three pension boards passed motions asking the legislature to hold off on any action until they understand the financial impact of the bills. So far, the legislature only has an analysis for the impact of a bill that would require public employees to contribute 1.5 percent of their salaries toward health benefits.

The state's pension funds cover retirement benefits for about 700,000 current and retired state and local workers, firefighters, police officers, judges and teachers.

�The proposed pension fund legislation wrongly makes police and fire an enemy when we believe we�ve faithfully made our contributions to the system,� said Rob Nixon, director of government affairs for the New Jersey Policemen's Benevolent Association.

Excuse me but police and firefighter public unions are the enemy. Indeed all public workers on a defined benefit plan are the enemy.

Firefighters Retire To Lock In Benefits

Fearing pension cutbacks Jersey City is losing scores of firefighters eager to retire to protect benefits.

The Jersey City Fire Department has lost 26 members since the start of the year and will lose 20 more March 1 as firefighters rush to retire before the Legislature caps payouts.

"All of a sudden, I've got all these people that are retiring," said Fire Director Armando Roman.
Across the state, municipal and school employees are making a mass exodus, fearful of state legislation that would cap their payouts for unused sick time at $15,000.

The Senate approved the bill, S-4, 36-0 Monday. The bill would only apply to those hired after the bill is signed into law, but it has employees nervous enough to leave before it becomes law.

Once again the solution to this mess is simple: Privatize the fire department and get rid of all these pension woes once and for all, going forward.

Counties Protest Excessive Pay In New Jersey

'Excessive' pay, benefits at N.J. Association of Counties are up for discussion

Concerns about "excessive" pay and benefits to the chief officer of the New Jersey Association of Counties, that caused some counties to withhold dues and prompted calls for the director�s resignation, will be tackled at a special executive board session today.

The association�s president, Somerset County Freeholder Peter Palmer, said he hopes to move quickly to resolve issues that have generated criticism of the lobbying group that represents 20 of the state�s 21 counties.

At issue are NJAC Executive Director Celeste Carpiano�s $205,000 salary, which rose from $133,000 since 2003, plus a luxury car she leases, oversight of the group�s nonprofit educational foundation and enrollment of NJAC employees in the state�s pension system.

The Morris County freeholders two weeks ago passed a resolution to withhold the county�s dues of $10,000 pending an independent audit of the agency, and lobbied other counties to join in withholding payment. They want cuts in pay and benefits to the association�s director and staff, and want the lobbying organization streamlined.

Freeholder boards in Sussex and Warren counties joined with Morris to withhold dues, while other counties are pondering decisions. Warren County Freeholder Director Richard Gardner called for Carpiano�s resignation, as did Somerset County Freeholder Director Jack Ciattarelli.

"I believe Celeste Carpiano�s compensation program is indefensible," said Ciattarelli. "Salary increases she received for the past five to six years should be cause for outrage."

Counties annually give the association a total of $200,000 in membership dues. Hunterdon County withdrew last year when NJAC declined to release financial information.

Congratulations go to Hunterdon County for having the common sense to opt out of the New Jersey association of counties. The simple solution is for every county to opt out of the association.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Short Selling Restrictions "A Great Indicator of Imminent Market Crashes"

Inquiring minds are investigating Fannie Mae's stunning $72 billion loss for 2009 as well as new short selling curbs. The two are actually related. Let's take a look.

Please consider Fannie Posts $72 Billion Loss for '09

Fannie Mae reported a staggering $72 billion net loss for 2009, underscoring the challenges that still face the nation's largest mortgage financier and offering more grim news for taxpayers who may ultimately pick up the bill.

The Washington-based company posted a $15.2 billion fourth-quarter loss and said it asked the U.S. Treasury for another $15.3 billion to stay afloat, bringing its total bailout tab past $76 billion. The quarterly results were an improvement from the year-ago period, when Fannie reported a $25.2 billion loss, but the annual loss surpassed the year-earlier loss of $58.7 billion.

While some analysts warn that efforts to modify loans are simply postponing foreclosures and delaying losses, Fannie Chief Executive Michael Williams said the company remained committed to preventing foreclosures. "Our overriding objective is keeping people in their homes whenever possible," he said in a statement.

The government took over Fannie and Freddie nearly 18 months ago as rising loan defaults burned big holes in the companies' balance sheets. The government has agreed to absorb unlimited losses for the next three years and up to $400 billion after that. So far, the companies have taken a combined $127 billion in Treasury support, making this bailout one of the most expensive from the financial crisis.

Short Selling Limits Yet Again

Proving that the SEC has learned nothing from history (I have a nice Fannie Mae example to prove it), the S.E.C. Moves to Put Limits on Short-Selling

The Securities and Exchange Commission voted on Wednesday to limit short-selling of stocks that are falling rapidly in price, The New York Times�s Floyd Norris reports. The rule was adopted on a 3-to-2 vote, with the two Republican members saying that no case had been made to justify any further action against short-selling.

The limits would apply to any stock whose price has fallen at least 10 percent during a day�s session. After that, short-selling would still be legal but not unless the sale was at a price higher than the best bid price then available.

The S.E.C. chairwoman, Mary L. Schapiro, said the rule would force short sellers to stand in the back of the line, unable to sell shares until all actual owners who wanted to sell had been able to do so.

�The reason this rule makes sense is because it recognizes that short-selling can potentially have both a beneficial and a harmful impact on the market,� she said in a statement.

The rule makes no more sense than putting buy restrictions on stocks that advance 10 percent. How many variations of this silly rule are we going to see anyway?

In July 2008, they put short selling restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. How well did that work out? Inquiring minds can tune into this real time play by play call.

Flashback Tuesday, July 15, 2008: SEC Panic - Shorting Curbs Placed on GSE Stocks

The panic at the Fed, the SEC, and the Treasury department continues. In an emergency action the SEC Curbs Shorting of GSE Stocks, Considers Limits for Wider Market.

.....

Shorting Curbs Can't Help

Shorting curbs cannot possibly help when the problem is solvency not liquidity. In spite of the announcement, shares of Fannie and Freddie are down another 19% each as of 1:40 PM Central.

If the SEC intended to cause a short covering rally in the GSEs, it sure failed miserably. Indeed, the market response shows just how futile the actions of the SEC, the treasury department, and the Fed are.

When that action failed, the SEC restricted more financial short selling.

Flashback Wednesday, July 16, 2008: SEC Restricts Shorting 19 Financial Stocks

Big brother has now decided to step in and force the price of all financial stocks up with this SEC short sale order.

So now the SEC is issuing short sale restrictions on financials because Bernanke says it's important for them to rise.

I have news for Bernanke and the SEC. This won't work. China had short sale restrictions on and it did not stop the Shanghai index from falling over 50%. Insolvency cannot be cured by short sale restrictions and many of those companies are insolvent.

All these short sale restrictions are going to do is create a vacuum. Once the shorts are driven out these shares will plunge. And who wants to buy a bond or provide capital knowing or even thinking share prices were artificially inflated.

That action finally triggered a short squeeze. It continued for a week or so. I commented on it a couple days later.

Flashback Friday, July 18, 2008: Short Squeeze In Financials Continues

Fannie Mae is up another 25% today to $13.66 in the wake of Selective Enforcement of Regulation SHO and Bernanke's statement: "It's important for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds and stocks to rise so they can keep raising capital and aid the mortgage market."

This move in financials is going to fail spectacularly once the panic buying ends, but for now the bulls are having a bit of fun.

Wow. I forgot that utterly stupid comment by Bernanke "It's important for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds and stocks to rise so they can keep raising capital and aid the mortgage market."

Fannie Mae never did raise any more capital. That short squeeze was the beginning of a violent end. Taxpayers have now bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the tune of $127 billion dollars. Recently Congress upped the taxpayer liability to infinity. Taxpayers are now on the hook for every penny of future losses.

How well did those short selling curbs work? History will be the judge.



click on chart for sharper image

As I said on July 16, 2008 ....

All these short sale restrictions are going to do is create a vacuum. Once the shorts are driven out these shares will plunge.

Interestingly, my friend "HB" pinged me earlier today with a very similar, but even more ominous comment.

"Short selling restrictions are a great indicator of imminent market crashes. The biggest market declines in history all happened shortly after short selling restrictions were introduced."

Don't count on that happening again, but if it does, you have fair warning.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hello Brevard County Florida: 23,000 expected to lose jobs after space shuttle retirement; Local Unemployment Will Skyrocket

Brevard County Florida, 35 miles east of Orlando, is about to get smacked with a loss of 23,000 jobs on news of Space Shuttle Retirement.

Revised projections now show that about 23,000 workers at and around Kennedy Space Center will lose their jobs because of the shuttles' retirement and the new proposal to cancel the development of new rockets and spacecraft.

That sum includes 9,000 "direct" space jobs and -- conservatively speaking -- 14,000 "indirect" jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores and others that depend on activity at the space center, said Lisa Rice, Brevard Workforce president.

The organization's earlier estimate of 7,000 direct jobs reflected just the retirement of the shuttle program. The updated numbers also include the cancellation of Project Constellation and other initiatives as outlined in the president's 2011 budget, Rice said.

"Our unemployment rate is going to skyrocket," she warned Thursday during a five-hour Brevard County Commission space workshop. Much conversation centered on the future of human space launches from KSC, and attendees heaped criticism on Obama's strategy.

Mark Nappi is vice president of launch and recovery systems for United Space Alliance, NASA's prime contractor for shuttle operations. As things stand today, he predicted that more than 4,500 of the company's 5,500 Florida workers will lose their jobs. Geographically speaking, Nappi said 4,850 USA workers live in Brevard, including 3,250 in the northern half of the county.

Commissioners asked what the county can do to recruit commercial launch companies from California, Virginia, Texas and elsewhere.

"The market will drive where space vehicles are launched from," Nappi said. "And if we believe in Florida that we have the birthright to spaceflight operations, we're going to be the Pittsburgh of the steel industry and the Detroit of the car industry."

No Birthright To Spaceflight Operations

One can debate all day whether there are better programs to cut, but Nappi has it correct. Birthright beliefs helped sink Detroit and Pittsburgh.

I send best wishes to those affected, but there is no birthright to government spending. The sooner we get away from that mentality the better.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Voters Madder Than Ever; 63% Say Better If Congress Not Reelected; Can Republicans Retake The House?

Here are a few polls from Rasmussen in January and February that many will find interesting.

75% Are Angry At Government�s Current Policies

Voters are madder than ever at the current policies of the federal government.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 75% of likely voters now say they are at least somewhat angry at the government�s current policies, up four points from late November and up nine points since September. The overall figures include 45% who are Very Angry, also a nine-point increase since September.

Just 19% now say they�re not very or not at all angry at the government�s policies, down eight points from the previous survey and down 11 from September. That 19% includes only eight percent (8%) who say they�re not angry at all and 11% who are not very angry.

63% Say Better for Country If Most of Congress Not Reelected

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of likely voters believe, generally speaking, that it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November.

Just 19% disagree and say it would be better if most congressional incumbents were reelected. Another 18% aren�t sure.

59% Say Cut Taxes to Create Jobs, 14% Expect Congress to Listen

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of voters nationwide believe cutting taxes is better than increasing government spending as a job-creation tool.

Only 15% of voters hold the opposite view and believe that increasing government spending is the better approach.

However, while voters overwhelmingly think cutting taxes is the better approach, they also overwhelmingly expect Congress and President Obama to take the opposite approach. Seventy-two percent (72%) say the nation�s elected politicians are more likely to increase government spending than cut taxes. Only 14% think they�ll cut taxes instead.

Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed

Seventy-one percent (71%) of all voters now view the federal government as a special interest group, and 70% believe that the government and big business typically work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

45% Say Random Group From Phone Book Better Than Current Congress

More voters have greater confidence in the telephone book these days than in the current Congress, and most think their national legislators are paid too much to boot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of likely U.S. voters now think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation�s problems than the current Congress. That�s up 12 points from October 2008, just before the last congressional elections. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree, and another 19% are not sure.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe those in Congress are paid too much. This is virtually identical to findings last August. but in October 2008, only 49% felt that way.

Can Republicans Retake The House?

In light of the above surveys many are wondering if republicans can retake the House of Representatives.

Please consider Republican Renaissance?: GOP Will Gain Significantly, But Probably Remain in House Minority

Some pundits are already predicting the GOP could even take back the House, which would require a net gain of 40 seats this November. To put that into perspective, in the past sixty years there have been thirty House elections, but only four have resulted in either party gaining 40 seats or more. In fact, over the past thirty-five years (and sixteen House elections), only once has either party picked up 40 seats or more. That year, of course, was 1994 when Republicans came to power following a net gain of 52 House seats.

The average pick-up in a midterm year (since 1946) is 22 seats and Republicans should exceed that, but the magic number of 40 still seems out of reach, as of February.

All in all, the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans would gain 27 seats if the election were held today. Both parties have reason to be glad the election is not until November: Democrats still have time to recover and Republicans can push their gains even higher. All of us observing can celebrate as well: 257 more days of House campaigning to enjoy!

Do Not Underestimate The Anger

While not calling for it yet, I think a Republican pickup of as many as 52 seats should not be ruled out.

Anger is clearly brewing and there is no reason for that anger abate by November.

Any surprise in Republican pickups will be to the upside.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama's Micro-Mismanagement of HAMP Equates to "Can-Kicking Stupidity"

When a program is badly flawed and not working, the rational thing to do is scrap it. Given that HAMP (Obama's Home Affordable Mortgage Program), is a complete failure, someone thinking clearly would kill the program.

Instead, president Obama, acting like the typical bureaucrat, wants to massively expand it. Please consider Obama May Prohibit Home-Loan Foreclosures Without HAMP Review.

The Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government�s Home Affordable Modification Program.

The proposal, reviewed by lenders last week on a White House conference call, �prohibits referral to foreclosure until borrower is evaluated and found ineligible for HAMP or reasonable contact efforts have failed,� according to a Treasury Department document outlining the plan.

The proposed changes would prohibit lenders from initiating new foreclosure actions before loan screening by HAMP and would require lenders to halt existing proceedings for borrowers once they are in a trial repayment plan.

Program Has Failed

The program was supposed to help prevent 4 million foreclosures. It will not come close.

From Peter Goodman at the NY Times: U.S. Loan Effort Is Seen as Adding to Housing Woes

The Obama administration�s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts now contend it has done more harm than good.

... desperate homeowners have sent payments to banks in often-futile efforts to keep their homes, which some see as wasting dollars they could have saved in preparation for moving to cheaper rental residences. Some borrowers have seen their credit tarnished while falsely assuming that loan modifications involved no negative reports to credit agencies.

The above snip courtesy of Calculated Risk who talked about HAMP problems in HAMP Seen Hurting Housing. CR offered the following opinion:

For the people that qualify - and aren't deep underwater on their homes - HAMP is a fine modification program. However there is no way this program will "reach up to 3 to 4 million at-risk homeowners". I noted HAMP would probably be a disappointment when it was announced early last year.

....

I expect more delays and "can kicking" that will keep foreclosures elevated for years.

Can Kicking Efforts

The program has failed, but the can-kicking has only gotten worse. My "California Commercial Banker" friend writes:

The Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government�s Home Affordable Modification Program. The Treasury proposal would require all borrowers who are 60 or more days delinquent on their mortgage to be sought out for participation in HAMP. Mortgage companies would need to try to contact the borrower at least four times by phone and twice by certified mail over 30 or more days before going to foreclosure.

As a banker for the past 18 years, both ideas are complete nonsense to the point of being downright.

First, most financial institutions do not have the man power nor the financial resources to support such ludicrous cow flop. Those institutions would incur additional expenses.

Secondly, if I were a bank CEO, my response would be something like this: Fine Mr. president, if you are going to control how and when we exit a distressed loan situation, then we will require even larger down payments and more prudent underwriting guidelines to qualify for a new home loan to avoid your plan entirely on all new loans going forward.

Thus, Mr. President, your proposal will tighten credit further, killing what little demand there is for real estate.

Lastly, forcing banks to go through this process on every loan in foreclosure would force banks to maintain non paying or non performing loans on their balance sheets even further in time. Those are dead assets producing no income which further impairs their balance sheet.

And aren't we trying to clean up the banking industry?

Capitalism, Mr. President is the answer, let the banks flush their loan issues and let the market deal with it, all your doing is drawing it out over years and making the problem worse.

Can-Kicking Always A Failure

Can kicking efforts are always a waste of time and money. What needs to happen, and it should be clear by now, is for houses to fall to the point they are genuinely affordable. The second thing that needs to happen is for banks to get rid of bad loans.

The height of can-kicking stupidity is a requirement that would force lenders to contact the borrower at least four times by phone and twice by certified mail over 30 or more days before going to foreclosure. This process will allow deadbeats making no payments to remain in their homes even longer.

President Obama's proposed HAMP modifications are an effort to boost home prices and prevent much needed price discovery. Worse yet, the proposals delay writeoffs while increasing the costs to do so. Finally the new proposals add increased costs to the institutions who would be forced to follow these new ridiculous procedures.

Radical Proposal Addendum:

Grrr Writes:

I've come up with a radical scheme that could possibly work to end the housing crisis:
1) People that can't or won't pay their mortgage lose the house.
2) The banks take the house and sell it to people who can afford it.

There are a few flaws:
1) It doesn't require massive amounts of government money.
2) It doesn't protect people from their mistakes.
3) It doesn't punish responsible people who are patiently waiting for houses to become affordable.
4) It could result in the banks that helped create this mess failing.

In spite of these issues, I believe we should give it a try.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?

I have been speaking with Rick Davis at the Consumer Metrics Institute about leading economic indicators. Davis claims his data leads the GDP by about 17 weeks while noting that other so-called "leading indicators" are merely a reflection on the stock market and yield curve.

Davis captures his data solely from online transactions of real consumers, in real time.

Here are four charts from Davis. The first chart shows the Consumer Conference Board LEI, not the Consumer Metrics Index.

Consumer Conference Board LEI vs. S&P 500



Davis writes:

Is the conference board LEI really leading anything or is it merely a reflection of the stock market? A look at the actual values of the LEI and the S&P 500 over the last four years confirms the indicator is really a coincident indicator for the equity markets, published once a month, three weeks in arrears.

Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. S&P 500



The above chart shows the Consumer Metrics Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. the S&P 500 Index. Watch what happens when the above data is offset by 5 months.

WCI vs. S&P 500 Shifted 5 Months



The Consumer Metrics website shows most of the WCI components advancing. However, housing and consumer spending account for roughly 60% of the index and those are contracting.

It is hard to make a case on the basis of so little data, but at least since 2006 we see evidence of actual leading.

However, the stock market does not always follow the economy nor is the stock market a leading indicator of the economy.

Please see Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator? for a discussion.

Thus, as interesting as the above chart may be, I would not recommend using Consumer Metrics Data to project stock market movements. However, when a stock market is as lofty as this one, and a recovery is priced in that is not likely to happen, I would expect the stock market to decline if the economy tanks.

Daily Growth Index (DGI) vs. BEA GDP



The above chart shows Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index (DGI) plotted against GDP.

According to Davis the DGI is 91-Day moving average of the WCI that corresponds to a trailing 'quarter', and is translated from a 100-base number into a +/- percentage. For example 99 on the WCI would roughly correspond to -1% on the DGI.

Rick Davis writes:

Hi Mish

I wanted to provide you with an update on our measurements of the consumer economy, which have continued to weaken since we spoke two weeks ago. On February 13th our "Growth Index" (which we use as a demand-side proxy or analog for a real-time "GDP" index) had dropped to an annualized contraction rate of 1.25%, down nearly a half-percent since we last spoke.

Since the most recent official GDP data from the BEA were running about 17 weeks behind our Growth Index, I assume they will continue to lag that far behind for the next two quarterly GDP updates.

If so, I have the following predictions.

Prediction 1: On April 30th the BEA will announce that the 1st Quarter 2010 U.S. GDP grew at about a 2.5% rate. This approximates our growth index's value on November 30th, 2009 - 17 weeks prior to the 1st quarter's end.

Prediction 2: On July 30th the BEA will announce that the 2nd Quarter 2010 U.S. GDP contracted at about a 1% rate. This is a projection of where our Growth Index will be on February 28th, 17 weeks before the end of the 2nd quarter.

Methodology Discussion

Consumer Metrics data comes solely from online transactions. As such it has many obvious biases that Davis points out in a follow-up Email.

Hello Mish

I will not disclose proprietary methods as to exactly how we capture data but I am willing to say that we are monitoring only U.S. consumers who are transacting in English on the internet. As you know, this causes some demographic sampling biases, but it has many advantages as well.

Sampling Biases

A) Our consumers may be educationally, economically and socially skewed relative to the entire U.S. population and economy.

B) We are tracking only discretionary durable goods ordered, purchased, or financed via the internet. This means that we are not capturing many significant sources of spending: groceries, non-discretionary medical services, some utilities, gasoline, non-reserved entertainment or dining, items ordered by phone or mail, bills paid by conventional check, etc.

However, in spite of some sampling biases, we have many advantages.

For example, consider the problem of inventory measurement in cyberspace vs. a few decades ago. In 1960 someone might take a clipboard and measure music industry inventory by going to the local record shop and counting Doris Day 45's in various bins. Shipment of those 45's may have been captured some weeks earlier in a rail car loadings report.

Today we have a different question. How do you count the inventory at the iTunes store? How many of the units sold by iTunes were captured in any rail car loadings report? Sticking with the rail car loadings for a moment: How many books sold at Amazon will be captured at any stage past pulp and dyes? How about the Kindle downloads? Are we expected to dismiss iTunes and Amazon as irrelevant to the economy?

Our long term vision is nothing short of a complete revolution in the way economic data is collected and reported. To that end we are working on a number of initiatives that expand the scope of our indicators.

We are also looking at modern real-time analogs for inventories and supply/demand pressures. Clearly eBay is a text-book model for the real-time supply/demand processes in the economy, where an abundant number of standard products can be placed in many different standard 'shopping carts' to monitor pricing dynamics on a daily basis.

The internet is replete with potential sources of real-time inventory data, from job postings on Monster to social inquiries on Craigslist. Mainstream economists have not started thinking about ways to capture shadow inventories or the underground economy.

Note that our Weighted Composite Index leads the S&P by about 140 days, with a standard deviation of about a quarter of that (35 days). In contrast, the conference board LEI is at best a coincident indicator.

However, the causative chain between consumer activities and subsequent equity market movements is torturous and prone to many random and perilous perturbations. Thus, historical time lags are not necessarily indications of similar future lags.

Rosenberg on the Consumer Conference Board LEI

Here is an interesting snip from Breakfast with Dave on February 19.

LEADING INDICATOR A GIANT HEADFAKE

The Conference Board�s leading economic index (LEI) rose 0.3 points in January, to 107.4 � a new high on the level. But the good news started and ended with the headline because the data beneath the surface were not so constructive. The diffusion index collapsed to 55 from 100 � the weakest breadth since March 2009. In fact, if not for the continued vital contribution from the shape of the yield curve � it only has to stay positively sloped to add to the index; it doesn't have to move � the LEI would have actually dipped 0.1% last month.

While the LEI is making new highs, there is little reason to believe it.

Rick Davis on the LEI

Rick Davis writes:

I wonder how many people actually take the time to read the Conference Board LEI Report and look at the data in it? The full report itself is a mere 9 pages.

There are several things worth noting in the report:

1) Seven of the components were actually measured and three were statistical "imputations". According to the release:

"To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading, coincident and lagging indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each unavailable component."

2) The largest positive contribution to the index in January was the yield curve, which has been providing a positive contribution continuously throughout the entire recession.

Anyone buying the LEI at face value is buying into the proposition that a favorable yield curve is sufficient to stimulate the economy.

3) The S&P 500 is among the five components showing statistically significant increases during January. Table 2 of the report, the LEI shows the S&P 500 rallied in January from 1110.38 to 1123.58.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the January price movement for the S&P 500 was actually -3.70% (1,115.10 on 12/31 to 1,073.87 on 1/29).

The S&P 500 for January was the third largest contributor to the LEI as noted in the February 18th release.

Timely, Accurate Information Not

Inquiring minds interested in the above discrepancy found a description of the lag problem in a Conference Board document written in 2002 called A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators. Here are a few pertinent paragraphs describing various problems.

"Most of the macroeconomic data for the United States require considerable time to collect, process, and release. Lags of one month are common for principal monthly indicators. For the quarterly data, including the national income and product accounts (NIPA), the lags are longer. Moreover, many of these indicators are subject to sizable revisions that are only realized over long time intervals. The data revisions presumably reduce measurement errors but they add to uncertainty and forecasting errors, as do gaps and lags in the availability of the data."

The paper went on to point out:

"At the same time, the publication lags and revision schedules vary greatly and some indicators are everywhere available promptly. In particular, financial market price and yield data are available electronically in real time during each trading day. The U.S. leading index includes stock prices and interest rate spreads that have no significant data lags and relatively few, if any, revisions. The financial market indicators convey a great deal of information with predictive value, yet, until recently, they were represented in the leading index, not by their most recent monthly values, but by their values in the preceding month for which data for other indicators were also available."

According to the 2002 paper The Conference Board corrected that problem in 2001:

"In the old procedure, the index released during the current month (t) referred to the month (t-2). In the new procedure, implemented by The Conference Board since January 2001, the index released in the same month (t) refers to the month (t-1) ... In our example, the old index would be calculated in the first week of March (t) for January (t-2), the month with a complete set of components. The new index would be calculated in the third week of March for February (t-1), the month for which 70 percent of the components are available and 30 percent are forecast."

Major LEI Problems

• Lags in Availability of Data
• Sizable Data Revisions
• Gaps
• Measurement Errors
• Uncertainty and Forecasting Errors
  
• Belief the S&P 500 leads

With so many lags and gaps, even if the LEI indicators did lead, what good is it if the indicators are going be revised away later and the components are either a month old, fictional, or imputed to start?

Real World Indicators

With the consumer confidence present conditions index crashing to a low last seen in February 1983 (see Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator? for details), there is no good reason to believe consumers will be doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Unemployed consumers typically do not spend a lot of money and Weekly Unemployment Claims Spiked To 496,000.

Couple that with the fact that New Home Sales Unexpectedly Plunge to Record Low it should not be too hard to envision a flat to negative GDP decline in the second or third quarter unless things turn around right now.

Finally, in light of the fact that economists are amazingly optimistic these days (save a small group of notables like Dave Rosenberg, Steve Keen, and Nouriel Roubini) expect any economic surprises to be to the downside.

Throw away that V-shaped party hat. A stalled recovery or an outright economic relapse is likely just around the corner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List