Voters Madder Than Ever; 63% Say Better If Congress Not Reelected; Can Republicans Retake The House?

Here are a few polls from Rasmussen in January and February that many will find interesting.

75% Are Angry At Government�s Current Policies

Voters are madder than ever at the current policies of the federal government.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 75% of likely voters now say they are at least somewhat angry at the government�s current policies, up four points from late November and up nine points since September. The overall figures include 45% who are Very Angry, also a nine-point increase since September.

Just 19% now say they�re not very or not at all angry at the government�s policies, down eight points from the previous survey and down 11 from September. That 19% includes only eight percent (8%) who say they�re not angry at all and 11% who are not very angry.

63% Say Better for Country If Most of Congress Not Reelected

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of likely voters believe, generally speaking, that it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November.

Just 19% disagree and say it would be better if most congressional incumbents were reelected. Another 18% aren�t sure.

59% Say Cut Taxes to Create Jobs, 14% Expect Congress to Listen

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of voters nationwide believe cutting taxes is better than increasing government spending as a job-creation tool.

Only 15% of voters hold the opposite view and believe that increasing government spending is the better approach.

However, while voters overwhelmingly think cutting taxes is the better approach, they also overwhelmingly expect Congress and President Obama to take the opposite approach. Seventy-two percent (72%) say the nation�s elected politicians are more likely to increase government spending than cut taxes. Only 14% think they�ll cut taxes instead.

Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed

Seventy-one percent (71%) of all voters now view the federal government as a special interest group, and 70% believe that the government and big business typically work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

45% Say Random Group From Phone Book Better Than Current Congress

More voters have greater confidence in the telephone book these days than in the current Congress, and most think their national legislators are paid too much to boot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of likely U.S. voters now think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation�s problems than the current Congress. That�s up 12 points from October 2008, just before the last congressional elections. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree, and another 19% are not sure.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe those in Congress are paid too much. This is virtually identical to findings last August. but in October 2008, only 49% felt that way.

Can Republicans Retake The House?

In light of the above surveys many are wondering if republicans can retake the House of Representatives.

Please consider Republican Renaissance?: GOP Will Gain Significantly, But Probably Remain in House Minority

Some pundits are already predicting the GOP could even take back the House, which would require a net gain of 40 seats this November. To put that into perspective, in the past sixty years there have been thirty House elections, but only four have resulted in either party gaining 40 seats or more. In fact, over the past thirty-five years (and sixteen House elections), only once has either party picked up 40 seats or more. That year, of course, was 1994 when Republicans came to power following a net gain of 52 House seats.

The average pick-up in a midterm year (since 1946) is 22 seats and Republicans should exceed that, but the magic number of 40 still seems out of reach, as of February.

All in all, the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans would gain 27 seats if the election were held today. Both parties have reason to be glad the election is not until November: Democrats still have time to recover and Republicans can push their gains even higher. All of us observing can celebrate as well: 257 more days of House campaigning to enjoy!

Do Not Underestimate The Anger

While not calling for it yet, I think a Republican pickup of as many as 52 seats should not be ruled out.

Anger is clearly brewing and there is no reason for that anger abate by November.

Any surprise in Republican pickups will be to the upside.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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