Interview Snips
- Canadian banks are not as "bulletproof" as everyone thinks.
- When the housing bubble bursts there will be tremendous consequences to Canadian banking system.
- We are in a massive bubble and there will be an enormous comeuppance.
- Canada housing bubble currently peaking.
- When you are in a bubble, the psychology is such that you cannot see it for what it is. Talking to Canadians about the housing bubble is like talking to Americans in 2006. There is a tremendous sense of denial.
- People pay 50-70% of their income for mortgage costs in places like Vancouver, but it's not just Vancouver. Such things are absolutely characteristic of a bubble.
- Canada will play catch-up to the downside in the fairly near future.
- Ireland-like dynamics absolutely coming to Canada.
- There is also a tremendous commercial real estate problem that will affect Canadian banks.
- Canadian banks have also acted as reinsurers in the derivatives market for a number of extremely risky things. So in a number of cases "the bucks stops with the Canadian banks".
- Real estate prices will fall about 90% on average. Deflationary credit collapse coming.
"Stoneleigh" lives in Canada and is author of the popular Automatic Earth Blog. Also see Stoneleigh and Max Keiser Flatten the Canadian Economy
I agree with everything "Stoneleigh" said in the above bullet point list except I do not see a price collapse of 90% on average. I think 50-60% in some areas is more like it. Even 40% would be devastating and that would be my best case scenario.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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