The world is headed for an economic slowdown, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Long Leading Index of global industrial growth.
"It is not country specific, but imagine if you could add up all the activity in factories around the world and see if it was accelerating or decelerating, that is what this indicator is focused on," says Lakshman Achuthan founder and managing director of the research center. "And it has been telling us very clearly, unambiguously, that we have a peak in global industrial growth this summer."
I commend Achuthan for a good interview and for insisting last year that a double-dip recession was not in the cards.
Many of you know that I got into a spat with the ECRI a while back. The issue was not that on the merits of the ECRI's indicators, but rather their claim the indicators never missed a recession call and never predicted a false recession.
Inquiring minds may wish to consider ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan Still Blowing Smoke
However, the ECRI and I now see things alike.
On Monday May 16 I wrote Huge Cracks in Global Recovery Thesis; Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops in Germany, France; UK Weaker than Expected.
That is consistent with what Achuthan said to Aaron Task yesterday in that Tech Ticker interview.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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