Tuesday, 3 May 2011

Portugal Negotiates $116 Billion Bailout Loan, Bond Market Yawns

Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates is singing the praises of a $116 bailout on good terms, even though two weeks ago he denied the need for Portugal to take a loan at all. The bond market responded with a big yawn.

Please consider Portugal Says It Has Negotiated a Bailout Loan of $116 Billion
Portugal has reached agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund on a three-year bailout loan of 78 billion euros or about $116 billion, the caretaker Prime Minister Jose Socrates said on Tuesday.

Mr. Socrates, who now faces a snap parliamentary election on June 5, hailed the package as a victory, saying it included more lenient terms than those imposed on Greece and Ireland.

�The government has obtained a good deal. This is a deal that defends Portugal,� Mr. Socrates said.

�Some of the parameters look a little softer than expectations such as the higher deficit target and longer time line,� said Vitaly Serebryakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

The deal is expected to be approved at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in mid-May, in time for the European rescue fund to raise money for Portugal by June 15, when the country needs to meet a bond redemption of 4.9 billion euros.
Good Deal or Impossible Deal?

  • Portugal gets a 3-year loan
  • Portugal needs to cut this year's budget deficit to 5.9%
  • Portugal deficit will shrink to 4.6% in 2012
  • Portugal deficit will shrink to 3% in 2013

I have three questions:

  1. Does anyone possibly think Portugal can pay back $116 billion in three years?
  2. Does anyone in their right mind think Portugal's budget deficit will be 3% in 2013?
  3. Given that Portugal is crowing about getting better terms than Ireland or Greece, how long will it take for Ireland and Greece to start bitching?

Portuguese 2-Year Government Bond Yield



I have a final bonus question.

If the bond market does not believe the deal, why should I?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

No comments:

Post a Comment