Hiring by U.S. small businesses slowed in August and employers reduced hours, an independent survey showed on Sunday, suggesting the recent stock market turmoil may have dampened job creation.Odds are US Already in Recession
Intuit, a payrolls processing company, said small businesses added 35,000 jobs after increasing employment by 40,000 in July.
The survey is based on responses from about 66,000 employers at businesses with fewer than 20 employees that use the Intuit Online Payroll system and covered the period from July 24 to August 23.
"There was plenty of bad news this month and the Intuit small business employment figures show this," said Susan Woodward, the economist who helped to develop the survey. "From this month's numbers, we don't see a new recession, but we don't see a robust recovery either."
I am increasing amused at the number of analysts and forecasters who think the US will avoid a recession. I think it is odds on the US is already in a recession.
Others have "gone out on a limb" forecasting a recession within a year.
Is that going out on a limb? Of course not. Going out on a limb was when Dave Rosenberg forecast a 99% chance of recession several months ago.
I was not that brave. He was and he deserves the credit for it. Most of the recession callers are Johnny-Come-Latelys. What's more amusing are those who see little chance of it at all.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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